Sunday afternoon baseball is the best.
We've got action spread out all over the course of the day, with lots of sunshine and outstanding hitting conditions across the midwest.
For today's "best bets," I'm targeting a pitcher's prop ahead of the Pirates' game on the road in Tampa vs the Rays, plus two totals on the board in Minnesota as well as in San Diego.
Here are my favorite MLB betting plays of the day, with all odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Top MLB Bets Today
- Roansy Contreras UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
- Rockies vs. Twins OVER 8.5 (-110)
- Phillies vs. Padres UNDER 7.5 (-110)
Roansy Contreras UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
I highlighted this play earlier today over in the BetSided team's best MLB prop bets of the day. Contreras is going to be a terrific pitcher that will eventually hit these prop numbers with ease, but until he starts getting consistent innings, I don't see it happening on a frequent basis.
Contreras has gone more than five innings just once in six starts, as the Pirates look to further acclimate their 22-year old top pitching prospect. In his last three starts, the scouting reports are starting to become more up-to-date, limiting him to less than five innings in two of them.
Contreras has failed to hit the over on 5.5 in two of six starts this year, and even though Tampa Bay is 10th in strikeout percentage in 2022, they also take quality at-bats and will make the young phenom work with every pitch. I also have concerns with the Rays as a dominant favorite at -240 at WynnBET.
Rockies vs. Twins OVER 8.5 (-110)
After putting together today's MLB Weather Report, I was surprised to see that Target Field in Minneapolis was not included as a massive upgrade in the BallParkPal Park Factors for Sunday's action.
The weather forecast indicates fantastic hitting conditions with the wind blowing out to right-center field at 20-plus mph.
Rockies starting pitcher Ryan Feltner has been a gas can in six starts this year; pitching to a 5.46 ERA with a HR/9 of 1.82. While his counterpart, Joe Ryan, has been very good for the Twins this season, he's started to give up a few more bombs as the weather has heated up; allowing three homers and seven earned runs over his last two starts and 10.2 innings.
Phillies vs. Padres UNDER 7.5 (-110)
It's a Yu Darvish start at Petco Park, and if this season is any indication of what's likely to happen, then the under is a lock.
Darvish has a 1.34 ERA in six starts in San Diego this year, and the under has hit in every game. The Padres have also been the fifth-best team in unders this season, going 32-40-2; hitting 55.6% of their games. At home, they've been even better in unders with a 12-23-1 under record; hitting 65.7% of the time.
The Phillies also lost their best hitter in Bryce Harper Saturday night after taking a Blake Snell pitch to the hand, fracturing his thumb. Losing him in the midst of their season turnaround is likely to be devastating.
Between Darvish's dominance, as well as the Padres being a consistent under machine, this sets up for another low scoring affair in classy San Diego.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!