MLB Best Bets Today (Tigers Live to Take Three Straight vs. Guardians)
By Ben Heisler
We had our dogs pay off on Tuesday night!
Both the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays hit on the moneyline as sizable underdogs vs. the San Diego Padres and New York Yankees respectively, as we highlighted the unstable offenses of both the Padres and Yankees against good starting pitching over the last few weeks.
Today, we're back at it with another big underdog looking to take 3 of 4 from a first-place division rival, as well as low total in St. Louis, and a strikeout prop that seems to be a tad too low on the board.
Here are my three favorite baseball bets for Wednesday, Aug. 17, highlighted by the most favorable odds from each respective sportsbook posted below.
MLB Best Bets Today
- Ross Stripling OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+115) - DraftKings Sportsbook
- Detroit Tigers (+195) vs. Cleveland Guardians - SugarHouse
- Rockies vs. Cardinals UNDER 7 (-105) - FanDuel Sportsbook
Ross Stripling OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+115) - Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Stripling returns off the injury list today in an afternoon matchup to help stop the bleeding for the Blue Jays. It's almost fitting that as the New York Yankees have gone just 2-8 over their last 10, so too have the Jays; dropping three straight games and are in danger of being swept by Baltimore.
Someone might have to let our friend Iain MacMillan know not to throw stones in a glass house, eh?
However, with Stripling back, I know I can at least rely on him to keep Toronto in the game. He's allowed two runs or less in all but one of his starts since May 7.
As for Orioles' starter Austin Voth, he's starting to get knocked around a little more of late, allowing five earned runs over his last 10.1 innings; including two home runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays. While he's still due for some positive regression, his expected ERA of 4.25 still isn't great, and Stripling's return should help neutralize a Blue Jays staff that's in need of some help.
Also, just for laughs, the Orioles have won only once in their last 23 games vs. division opponents on Wednesday.
Detroit Tigers (+195) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+195)
A juicy underdog at nearly 2/1 odds as a best bet? "What are you smoking, Benny?"
Just like last night, there are several underdogs in advantageous spots, and I consider the Tigers to be one of them this evening in Cleveland.
Detroit's won two straight games since its six-game win streak back in July, and the Tigers' offense has taken a far more patient approach at the plate with eight walks in both wins. It's also worked well for newcomer Kerry Carpenter, who has two home runs in his first five Major League games.
While starter Daniel Norris has yet to earn a win, he looked very good in just his second start of the year last week vs. the White Sox, going 4.2 innings with just four hits allowed and no runs. Cal Quantrill has also looked sharp with back-to-back scoreless starts over 13 innings.
There's a reason the Guardians are as big of favorites as they are, but the value is screaming towards Detroit, as it should not be anywhere as high as 2/1 dogs.
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 (-105)
The Rockies remain one of the worst offenses in baseball away from Coors Field in Denver, and face a tough out in newly acquired southpaw Jordan Montgomery tonight in St. Louis.
Colorado is bottom-6 in weighted on-base average, or wOBA away from home, and Montgomery has yet to allow a run in his two starts in a Cardinals uniform; mowing down his former team, the New York Yankees as well as the Milwaukee Brewers in his first two starts.
Meanwhile, Germán Márquez's splits are far superior away from Coors Field. At home, he's got a 5.85 ERA in 72.1 innings, but in 55.1 innings on the road, that ERA shrinks down to 4.07; cutting down his home runs per nine from 1.87 down to 0.98.
Even if St. Louis gets a handful off of him, the Rockies' offense shouldn't be able to keep up with Montgomery and the Cards' bullpen.
Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!