Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Trust Tarik Skubal, Royals, Brewers on Thursday)
By Peter Dewey
It’s a travel day in Major League Baseball, which means we have a much shorter slate than usual on Thursday.
Still, there are three bets that I’m looking to make on this slate, as there are a bunch of pitchers to consider targeting, including reddy Peralta, Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal.
After hitting two of the three plays that I gave out on Wednesday, let’s keep the momentum going on April 11:
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MLB Best Bets Today for April 11
- Kansas City Royals Moneyline vs. Houston Astros
- Tarik Skubal UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
- Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline vs. Cincinnati Reds
Kansas City Royals Moneyline vs. Houston Astros
The Kansas City Royals are home underdogs on Thursday night, but I think this is a prime spot to back them to get a win over the Houston Astros – who have gotten off to a slow start in 2024.
Kansas City has Brady Singer on the mound, and the righty has been lights out across two starts this season, allowing just five hits and one earned run while striking out 14 across 13.1 innings of work.
Singer also has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of just 2.99, so he’s clearly pitching at a high level to start the season. On the other side, Houston will send youngster Hunter Brown to the mound, and he’s only lasted three and four innings in his first two outings in 2024.
A former fifth-round pick, Brown gave up five runs in a loss to Texas his last time out. I’m worried about the lack of length that Brown has given the team so far this season, especially since the Astros have a 5.18 bullpen ERA, one of the 10 worst in baseball.
I’ll take a shot on the Royals as home dogs in this one.
Tarik Skubal UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has been one of the best pitchers in baseball dating back to last season, and I’m going to trust him against the Minnesota Twins on Thursday.
Minnesota is dead last in Major League Baseball in batting average this season (.184), and that bodes well for Skubal going UNDER his hits allowed prop in this matchup.
So far this season, Skubal has allowed three hits in six innings of work and four hits in 6.1 innings of work in his two starts. Dating back to the 2023 season, he’s allowed four or fewer hits in six straight outings.
Trust him against a struggling Minnesota offense tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline vs. Cincinnati Reds
This is another pitching matchup that I think we can take advantage of, as Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta gets the ball against Cincinnati’s Nick Martinez.
Peralta has a 3.09 ERA and 2.78 FIP across two starts this season, allowing just five hits and four runs across 11.2 innings of work, striking out 15 batters in the process.
Cincinnati has been solid on offense (12th in the league in OPS) to open this season, but I can’t trust Martinez, who has been tagged for 14 hits and eight runs in 10.0 innings (two starts).
Milwaukee is 2-0 in its ace’s starts this season, and it should ride Peralta to another in this one.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.