Betsided

MLB Best Bets Today (Underdogs Barking in Baltimore and Seattle, Under Looms in New York)

By Ben Heisler

New York Mets starting pitcher Trevor Williams gets the nod tonight at home when they face Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals from Citi Field.
New York Mets starting pitcher Trevor Williams gets the nod tonight at home when they face Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals from Citi Field. / Greg Fiume/GettyImages
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After going 2 of 3 with three consecutive underdogs to win outright on Sunday, I'm going back to the well again on Monday evening with two more dogs on the card. One hosts an inter-division game against the top team, while the other is a battle between two teams that found themselves just on the outside looking in from last season's Wild Card round.

Meanwhile, we've got a fun one at Citi Field between the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, where we'll focus on the total rather than a side.

Let's get to it with all odds, run lines and totals courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, May 16

  • Orioles +175 vs. Yankees
  • Mariners +139 at Blue Jays
  • Cardinals vs. Mets UNDER 8 (-110)

Orioles +175 vs. Yankees

I'm a believer in Orioles starter Kyle Bradish.

In writing the game preview and prediction for Yankees vs. Orioles earlier, I mentioned Bradish's last game where he mowed down 11 St. Louis Cardinals in seven innings. While plenty of pitchers have had double-digit K's this season, what impressed me most was Bradish dominating a Cardinals team that's best in baseball in strikeout percentage this season; keeping them completely off-balance without walking a batter.

Luis Severino has also started to come back to earth after a terrific start, giving up home runs in his last three starts and a home run to fly ball ratio of 1:5 in his last two. The Bronx Bombers have also played nine games in their last eight days, so we could start to see some tired swings as their road trip continues.

Mariners +139 at Blue Jays

I continue to look bad each time I do it, but I'm keep fading Yusei Kikuchi of the Toronto Blue Jays.

The veteran left-hander comes in with average results, a 1-1 record with a 4.15 ERA through six starts this season, but his advanced metrics rank in the 0-10th percentile in multiple categories.

As for Seattle's starter Chris Flexen, his one bad outing last time out makes his overall numbers look much worse than they are. After not allowing more than three earned runs in his first five starts, he blew up last time out versus the Philadelphia Phillies for six in five innings.

Between Flexen projected to get back on track, as well as Seattle's offensive matchup against Kikuchi, I like the underdog M's on the road tonight.

Cardinals vs. Mets UNDER 8 (-110)

Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals continues to deal so far in 2022. He has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this season, and has been terrific in not allowing hard contact; ranking in the 92nd percentile in baseball this season, via MLB Statcast data.

He's opposed by Trevor Williams, who despite an ERA of 5.73, has actually pitched much better than what his main numbers indicate. Via Fangraphs, Williams' expected ERA (xERA) is actually 3.24, with an even lower fielder independent pitching (FIP) of 3.20.

The public also saw St. Louis and New York put up monster offensive numbers on Sunday, but this should be more of a pitcher's duel instead.

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