MLB Best Bets Today (Value on Diamondbacks, One OVER to Bet and a Nick Pivetta Prop on Sunday Night Baseball)

Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte.
Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte. / Antranik Tavitian/The Republic / USA

We have a bunch of different bets to make on Sunday in Major League Baseball, as I have a player prop, a total and a first five innings moneyline that I’m playing. 

The playoff races are heating up across the league, but I’m taking a shot by fading one of the league’s hottest teams, the St. Louis Cardinals in today’s MLB Best Bets. 

If you’re willing to ride, all of my plays are from DraftKings Sportsbook: 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres OVER 8.5 (-110)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings ML vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+105)
  • Nick Pivetta UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres: OVER 8.5 (-110)

I am going to fade Patrick Corbin every time he starts, as he has a 6.96 ERA this season and has allowed four or more runs in seven straight starts. 

Sean Manaea has been equally bad as of late, posting a 6.87 ERA over his last eight starts and allowing opponents to hit .321/.378/.593 against him. 

So how should we bet on this matchup? Simply root for runs and take the OVER!

Both of these guys are going to struggle to work deep into the game, and if that’s the case we can expect plenty of runs to be scored early. Even though Washington’s offense is a question mark, Corbin could give up close to eight runs on his own, so I don’t mind trusting the OVER 8.5.

In Corbin’s last six starts, there have been over 8.5 runs in five of them. At -105, I think we have some value here. 

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: D-Backs First 5 Innings ML (+105)

The St. Louis Cardinals are arguably the hottest team in baseball right now, and they have the No. 1 OPS in MLB over their last 15 days, while Arizona comes in at 15th in the same category. 

However, I don’t think the Cards should be road favorites against Merrill Kelly, even with Jose Quintana on the bump. 

Since the trade deadline, Quintana has a 2.65 ERA and has given up just five earned runs over three starts (three Cardinals’ wins). However, that pales in comparison to what Kelly has done over the last two months. 

Dating back to July 1, Kelly has made nine starts and has compiled a 4-0 record with 1.64 ERA, allowing just 11 runs over that stretch. Somehow, the D-Backs have only won five of those starts, but you can guarantee that Kelly will keep them in this game. 

I’m going to back Kelly over Quintana and take Arizona to pull off the upset, in the first five innings, on Sunday. 

Nick Pivetta UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

The Boston Red Sox have a Sunday Night Baseball showdown with the Baltimore Orioles, and they need a win to get back to .500 on the season. 

Nick Pivetta (9-9, 4.28 ERA) gets the ball for Boston, and he’s been up-and-down all season long. However, his strikeout prop may be something to take advantage of against a Baltimore team that strikes out less than nine times per game. 

Over his last 10 starts, Pivetta has cleared this line just twice, and he only had six strikeouts in each of those games. He’s also faced Baltimore twice this season, and picked up five K’s in both games. 

I’ll fade him here given his recent form.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.