Yesterday was another solid day for prop betting for me. I went 2-1, with Jose Urquidy losing me a bet with our own Ben Heisler. Turns out he was on the right side of history. Still, we cashed on two plus money props, so not all was bad on Thursday.
As for tonight, we’re going with two more plus money props and backing one of the best pitchers in the game.
All odds listed are via consensus sportsbooks.
MLB Best Bets Today
- Justin Verlander OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)
- Brayan Bello UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+102)
- Sandy Alcantara OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Justin Verlander OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Verlander is in contention for the AL Cy Young and I’m expecting him to defend his case strongly tonight. He’s hit this line in three straight starts, and the Mariners aren’t a tough team to strike out. Seattle is just outside the bottom third in strikeouts per game. With Verlander at home and a Mariners team that is susceptible to strikeouts, I like the value here.
Brayan Bello UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+102)
It has not been a fun start to a career for Bello. In three starts, he’s 0-2, has a 10.50 ERA and is giving up nearly five runs per outing. The Red Sox have him pitch for four innings in each of his starts, which is short enough for me to fade him tonight.
Bello has only reached this line once, but I see that as an early exception. He’s not pitching well and I'll fade him until he proves he can be trusted.
Sandy Alcantara OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Sandy Alcantara is pitching tonight, so you know we have to bet on him. Alcantara is facing the Mets for the second time in his last four starts. In his last outing against them, The Cy Young favorite fell two strikeouts short of this line. However, he continues to go six innings and further in a majority of his starts. As long as Alcantara – who’s cleared double-digit strikeouts in three of his last five starts – is on the mound, I’ll trust him.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.