MLB Home Run Totals Trend Causing Major Concern for Bettors in 2022
By Joe Summers
"Hey, what happened to all the home runs?"
After a power resurgence the last few years had fans wondering if the MLB was juicing baseballs, hitters are smashing dingers at a stunningly low rate:
MLB Home Run Rates by Year*
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) April 18, 2022
2018: 4.5%
2019: 5.5%
2020: 5.2%
2021: 5.0%
2022: 4.3% ????
ANNNNND we're at the point where 2022 data should be pretty stable.
(*Adjusted for weather, park, player quality, and universal DH)
Much to BetSided's chagrin, that's made picking winners for our Daily Dinger much more difficult. While some hitters are still racking up home run numbers (looking at you, Vlad Guerrero Jr.), there's certainly something going on here worth monitoring.
Perhaps the MLB really was juicing baseballs and ended the practice, maybe pitchers are adjusting faster than hitters to life with a shortened spring training, or maybe it's just bad luck for batters.
As The Big Lead's Ryan Phillips points out, fewer home runs is not a good result for the game. Baseball's decision to deaden the ball and install humidors in all 30 parks is not just a bad idea for fans wanting to see more baseballs leave the yard, but also bettors eager to jump on some fun home run props as well.
Whatever the case, home run numbers are lower than they have been in years, and as bettors we have to adjust. This could mean being more careful on which home run props you choose to bet, and it could also mean favoring certain unders when you may ordinarily prefer an over bet.
We'll keep you updated here at BetSided with the latest numbers. Be sure to check out our Daily Dinger as we analyze the data to find the best home run value props the rest of the season.
In the meantime, head on over to WynnBET Sportsbook but keep this information in mind as you lock in your bets ahead of a busy week of MLB action.
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.