MLB Playoff Odds vs. Baseball Reference Playoff Odds: Who Has Betting Value?
By Peter Dewey
The Major League Baseball playoff race changes on the daily, with the Seattle Mariners making a serious run in the American League while the National League race features a bundle of teams fighting for a wild card spot.
For bettors, there’s a chance to find an undervalued team in the betting market to make the postseason, and luckily there are a ton of projections for us to compare to.
Last week, we discussed the playoff odds in the wild card races, but why not compare them to Baseball Reference’s thoughts on the postseason?
Here’s where we can find betting value in the playoff odds market:
Baseball Reference AL Playoff Odds
Baseball Reference predicts the most likely playoff scenario to feature these division winners and wild card teams.
American League Projections | Team | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
AL East Winner | Baltimore Orioles | 99.9% |
AL Central Winner | Minnesota Twins | 91.8% |
AL West Winner | Texas Rangers | 94.5% |
Wild Card No. 1 | Tampa Bay Rays | 97.1% |
Wild Card No. 2 | Seattle Mariners | 69.7% |
Wild Card No. 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.7% |
American League Teams With Value in Latest Playoff Odds
Houston Astros
Immediately, it stands out that Baseball Reference doesn't have the Houston Astors -- the defending World Series champions -- in the playoffs. Houston is currently -400 to make the playoffs in the betting market, which could mean that the "miss the playoffs" option at +320 odds is a massive value.
The Astros have a 64.0 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Reference. However, oddsmakers have the team set at -400 -- an implied probability of 80.0 percent (!!) that they make the postseason.
There isn't much value with the Seattle Mariners or Toronto Blue Jays, who are both at -200 to make the playoffs, since it's likely only two of the teams between Toronto, Seattle and Houston make the postseason.
Now, let's take a look at the National League...
Baseball Reference NL Playoff Odds
Baseball Reference predicts the most likely playoff scenario to feature these division winners and wild card teams.
National League Projections | Team | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
NL East Winner | Atlanta Braves | > 99.9% |
NL Central Winner | Milwaukee Brewers | 80.0% |
NL West Winner | Los Angeles Dodgers | > 99.9% |
Wild Card No. 1 | Philadelphia Phillies | 90.1% |
Wild Card No. 2 | Chicago Cubs | 63.1% |
Wild Card No. 3 | San Francisco Giants | 48.9% |
National League Teams With Value in Latest Playoff Odds
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are -125 to make the playoffs -- an implied probability of just 55.56 percent, but Baseball Reference is giving the Cubbies a better than 63 percent chance to make the playoffs. Plus, they expect the team to be the No. 2 wild card in the NL.
That means there's some value in taking the Cubs at this discounted price to make the postseason.
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are currently one game out of the final wild card spot in the National League, and they are not expected to make the playoffs in the final projection.
However, their odds are mispriced based on Baseball Reference's projections. Baseball Reference gives the Reds a 37.7 percent chance to make the playoffs, higher than the Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Despite that, the Reds have worse playoff odds than both teams at +210. Cincy's implied probability to make the playoffs in these odds is just 32.26 percent. There's some value here if you're willing to take a shot on the Reds.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.