MLB Regression Report for April 22 (Phillies Have 6-0 Week, Guardians Roll On)

Sometimes teams get on a roll and mow down the competition no matter who the opponent is and sometimes the schedule gods shine on you.

It was a little bit of both for the Philadelphia Phillies who rolled through the week 6-0 against the Rockies and White Sox to the tune of 38-14 in Philadelphia last week.

Despite all the mashing the Phillies did last week the team is near the top of this week's regression report, indicating perhaps they're a bit over their skis and regression will be visiting soon.

Still, it'd be difficult to justify any other team for our "Living the High Life" award. The Phillies took a situation where they were expected to win by a large amount and did just that and those six wins count in the standings every bit as much as a win over Atlanta or the Los Angeles does.

A team that's quietly going about their business in Cleveland went 6-1 against a tougher schedule (at Boston, hosting Oakland) wins our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award of the week, as the Guardians actual record and expected record for the season are within a hair of a perfect match.

The schedule toughens for the Guardians, too but they've already faced Seattle and Boston on the road and the Yankees at home, so we're beginning to get to the point where we should believe, right?

The Arizona Diamondbacks remain at the bottom of the report, almost a game and a half behind where they are expected after a 3-4 week, despite outscoring their opponents by a run per game on average.

That game and a half happens to be how far the Snakes are behind the scuffling Dodgers and there are two ways to look at that.

One is there's upside for Arizona, in that they haven't played particularly well and yet haven't paid a huge price for it.

The other is they've missed an opportunity with the Dodgers middling performance.

Time will tell which is closer to the truth, but the longer Arizona remains at the bottom of the report, the more I lean toward the latter explanation as I find it difficult to believe the Dodgers will continue at a .542 clip.

For now, the Diamondbacks get the "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award, but time is ticking in the desert.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

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