MLB Regression Report for April 29 (Dodgers, Braves Doing Exactly What We Thought)

It was the Minnesota Twins turn to fatten up on questionable opposition, as Minnesota blasted its way to a perfect week, going 7-0 while outscoring the White Sox and Angels by a total of 57-24.

The Twins still find themselves at only a game over .500 and 4.5 games out of first, because before last week they had lost six of seven games.

Still, as we mentioned last week, a win is a win and no one asks who you beat if you end up in first place and much like the Phillies last week going undefeated earns you our "Living the High Life" award.

Speaking of first place, the Dodgers and Braves, two teams expected to dominate this season, did just that, with both teams rolling to 5-1 records.

The Braves outscored their opponents 24-12 and the Dodgers were even more dominant, manhandling the Nationals and Blue Jays to the tune of 34-11.

The regression report sees minor regression ahead for the Braves, as their 6-3 record in one-run games and 4-1 record in extra innings suggests, but the Dodgers still have a tiny bit of room on the plus side.

The Oakland A's have been a good story early in the season, splitting four games in New York, before taking two of three in Baltimore, but we see regression coming in the next couple of weeks.

We're higher on the A's than their Pythagorean Expected Wins number, but they still sit atop the list of regression candidates.

For a couple of weeks straight I mentioned the American League East trio of the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays as teams likely to regress and that has happened to varying degrees, but the good news in New York is that their 19 wins appear "real" and the Bombers win our "The Are What Their Record Says They Are" award this week, edging out the Pirates.

What they are right now is a team primed to win 100 games.

If you figure out what's happening in Arizona let me know, please.

The Diamondbacks went 2-4, but outscored the opposition 23-22 thanks to a 14-1 crushing of the Cardinals.

After that, they lost three straight and scored one run in each game.

A similar scenario played out the week before when the Diamondbacks scored three runs over two games before unloading on the Giants, 17-1.

These two games and their combined 31-2 run differential is causing problems for the Pythagorean Expected Wins, which sees Arizona as a 17-win team, and the MLB Regression Report which sees them as a 15-win team.

The jury is still out on this team with the Dodgers in town beginning tonight and we trust their run differential will smooth out over the season, so for now the Diamondbacks remain our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage, but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.