MLB Regression Report: Cubs, Cardinals Make Play for Wild Card, D-Backs Fall Back to Earth

September baseball is here and while there's just a smattering of intrigue over the likely division winners after this past weekend, there is considerable jockeying for the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League with multiple teams still in the hunt.

Chicago Cubs Reel Off Perfect Week to Get Back in Wild Card Discussion

Long believed to be an afterthought in the National League Central, the Chicago Cubs made a move with a 6-0 week sweeping three-game series on the road at Pittsburgh and at Washington.

The Cubs now find themselves just three games behind the Atlanta Braves and two behind the New York Mets for the final Wild Card in the National League.

Another three-game set with the Pirates begins today, this one at Wrigley Field, but after that the schedule toughens with back-to-back series with the Yankees (at home) and Dodgers (in Los Angeles).

The next nine games could determine the Cubs playoff fate, but there's something to be said for still being in it this late and the undefeated week earned Chicago our "Living The High Life" award for the week.

Arizona Misses Opportunity to Close Gap, but Remain in Solid Position

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been a scorching hot 28-12 since the All-Star break, but came down to earth against the Dodgers over the weekend, despite piling up 29 runs in three games.

The series loss leaves Arizona five games behind the Dodgers with 25 to play, but three games ahead in the National League Wild Card race.

The MLB Regression Report suggests this is exactly where the Diamondbacks should be and the Snakes are our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

St. Louis Cardinals Face Long Odds, but Still Breathing

That same report casts the St. Louis Cardinals as the second most overperforming team in terms of wins and it's not tough to see why.

At one game over .500 the Cards have been outscored by 52 runs and are 25-18 in one-run games.

Over the All-Star break, I wondered about the Cardinals' ability to hold on to a playoff spot in the second half for exactly those reasons and to some extent it's come to fruition with St. Louis just 19-22 since that time.

A series win in the Bronx revived some hope and the Cardinals find themselves just five games out of the final Wild Card spot as they begin a three-game series in Milwaukee, followed by three in St. Louis against the Mariners.

The odds are low, FanGraphs pegs them at a miniscule 1.5%, and the Regression Report sees more downside ahead, but 137 games in this team has defied the odds and is our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.