MLB Regression Report: Diamondbacks Making NL West Competitive, Rays Face Daunting Schedule

It was just last week that I pointed out that the Arizona Diamondbacks had made a move and put themselves into contention, not only for a Wild Card spot, but perhaps in the National League West.

For this week, let's look at the D-Backs emerging as a contender for the NL Pennant yet again, as well as the Dodgers' struggles before we head over to the American League to discuss the Tampa Bay Rays' wild card hopes against a tough schedule upcoming.

Arizona Diamondbacks Continue Post-All-Star Break Dominance

Then the Snakes went out and went 6-1 on the week, gaining another game and a half on the Los Angeles Dodgers, while improving their record since the All-Start break to 17-5.

The Diamondbacks find themselves tied with the also hot San Diego Padres, 3.5 games behind the Dodgers, with both teams 4 games ahead in the Wild Card race with 43 games left to play.

Arizona wins our "Living The High Life" award of the week by outscoring their opponents 49-26 and closing the gap in the National League West.

Los Angeles Dodgers Holding On For Dear Life

I'm probably too invested in this race as I took the Dodgers under their win total of 103.5 on the season.

It's no knock on the Dodgers, but 104 wins means everything has to go right and the games in late September have to mean something to reach that number.

We know a lot has gone wrong for Los Angeles, but the Dodgers are still in first place, having played well enough to keep the lead over the hot Diamondback and Padres teams.

They aren't going to win 104 games, but they are still winning at a .585 pace and I think they reach 95 to 97 wins and hold on to the West.

The Dodgers are our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

Tampa Bay Rays Face Crucial Stretch and Daunting Schedule

I suggested the Rays were a team to consider fading after the All-Star break, but they've been holding on, going 11-10 since then.

My reasoning was simple. The Regression Report indicated (and still does) that Tampa was the second most overvalued team in the first half, they have a negative run differential and have overperformed in one-run games (20-12).

In the shorter term, the Rays were 2-4 last week and find themselves 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League.

The schedule ahead for the Rays is daunting: Houston (3), Arizona (3), at Oakland (4), at Los Angeles Dodgers (3), at Seattle (3), San Diego (3), Minnesota (3), at Baltimore (3), at Philadelphia (3), at Cleveland (4).

Besides the four games with the resurgent A's (13-8 since the break), the Rays don't face a team with a losing record until September 20.

They're playing over .500 ball since the break and they won our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award of the week, but I still have them on fade alert.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.