MLB Regression Report: Royals, Diamondbacks on the Move, Cardinals Waffling

In some ways, it's difficult to believe, but here we are with less than two months left in the regular season and you could make an argument that more divisions than not are still up for grabs.

At the same time, the Wild Card races are heating up as the ebbs and flows of the 162-game regular season wears on teams as some surge, while others fall by the wayside.

This week's MLB Regression Report identifies three teams to keep an eye on as we move closer and closer to post-season baseball.

Kansas City Royals Solidify Status as Wild Card Contender

Back in February, I identified the Royals as a club that would be improved in 2024, but I didn't see them contending for a playoff spot.

After a good start, the club went in the tank for the better part of June, going 8-18 from May 26 to June 23.

The Royals righted themselves and have gone 11-5 after the All-Star break to find themselves in the third American League Wild Card spot, 2.5 games ahead of the Red Sox.

The good news is the regression report suggests there is still upside for the Royals.

The bad news is six of those recent wins have been against the lowly White Sox and they're 5-5 against everyone else since the Midsummer Classic.

Whether this team can hold on to a postseason birth is to be determined, but beginning this evening they host the Red Sox for three games that could shift the race in one direction or the other.

The Royals are our "Living The High Life" team of the week, going 6-1 and outscoring the opposition 46-22 along the way.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Little Engine That Could

In that same February article I mentioned the Arizona Diamondbacks as a team that would likely improve on last season's win total.

I waffled earlier this season as Arizona hovered around the .500 mark and I began to question my own numbers.

I'd argue Arizona is still a weird case, highlighted by extremes on both ends of the stick. Blowout wins by scores of 16-1, 17-1, 14-1, 12-1 and 17-0 are not the norm for 2020s MLB and skew models towards more wins.

But Arizona also has enough blowout losses that have literally evened things out, as evidenced by their pace (87 wins), Pythagorean Expected Wins (87) and my model (87).

Arizona is our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

St. Louis Cardinals Fading Early in Second Half

During the All-Star break, we pointed to the Cardinals as a team to fade in the second half of the season, despite St. Louis holding down the second Wild Card spot at that time.

Since the break, the Cardinals have gone 7-9 and dropped to three games out of the final National League Wild Card spot.

There's plenty of ball left to play and St. Louis can gain a game on the Mets as the two teams play a makeup game in St. Louis later today.

The schedule ahead is not easy, but the Cardinals are still in it and they are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" award winner this week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.