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MLB Regression Report: Diamondbacks Red Hot, Red Sox Fade, Royals and Twins Making It Interesting

The National League West race heats up as the division has the three best teams since the break.

By Marty Coleman

Aug 20, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrates after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins during the fifth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 20, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrates after hitting a home run against the Miami Marlins during the fifth inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
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The pennant races are heating up as we head into the final month and some change of the 2024 regular season.

There's one division that's particularly hot and you might be surprised to find out it isn't the American League East, but rather the National League West that has been scorching since the All-Star break.

Arizona Diamondbacks on Fire, but Struggle to Improve Playoff Position

The Diamondbacks are coming off a perfect 6-0 week, having swept the Marlins and Red Sox and Tory Lovullo's team is an amazing 26-8 since the All-Star break, leading MLB in that time.

The bad news is the second and third-best teams also reside in the National League West, in the San Diego Padres (24-9) and Los Angeles Dodgers (22-12).

It's hard to fathom being that good for that long and only gaining four games on the first-place Dodgers.

The Diamondbacks are only three games behind Los Angeles, but one wonders how long they can keep pace with the Dodgers and hold off the Padres who are only a game and a half back of Arizona.

Still, going 6-0 on the road without Christian Walker and Ketel Marte is an accomplishment and the Diamondbacks earn our "Living The High Life" award for the week.

Boston Red Sox Swept at Fenway, Fall Further Behind in Wild Card Race

After splitting four with the Orioles and then taking two of three from the Astros, there was hope that the Red Sox would make a run, but a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks leaves Boston 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with 33 games left on their schedule.

After 129 games the MLB Regression Report sees this team as what it is: A slightly better than .500 team landing just outside of the playoffs.

The Red Sox are our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

American League Central Still Up For Grabs

While it feels like it's been a given that the Guardians would win the American League Central going away, that hasn't happened just yet.

The Guardians are just 17-18 since the break and both the Twins and Royals are three games back.

There's a segment of baseball analysts that see the Royals as a fraud and we're about to find out as the Royals start a stretch that could define their season: at Cleveland (4), at Houston (4), Cleveland (3), Minnesota (3) and at the New York Yankees (3).

The Regression Report sees some upside for the Royals and believes the Guardians have overperformed a bit, which is an interesting combination for teams separated by just three games.

We'll see where Kansas City stands after those 17 games, but for now, there's still a chance and the Royals are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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