MLB Regression Report: Houston Astros Set Up for AL Pennant Push, Diamondbacks Setback

There are plenty of storylines and pennant races to discuss, but one that's been under the radar a little bit is the remarkable turnaround in Houston under rookie manager Joe Espada.

Let's waste no time and cover the biggest stories in Major League Baseball, including the emerging Houston Astros, the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks, and the potentially opportunistic Boston Red Sox.

Houston Astros Open Up Four-Game Lead in the American League West

After losing to the Chicago White Sox on June 18 the Houston Astros found themselves 33-40 and 10 games behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West.

Just the day before I wrote about Seattle taking control of the division.

Since that time the Astros have gone 34-16 (.680) and now own a four-game lead over the Mariners in the division, with Fangraphs placing Houston's odds of winning the AL West at 83.8% and making the playoffs at a robust 86.4%.

What's remarkable is that the Astros have done all of this without star right fielder Kyle Tucker, who's been out since early June, and the bulk of their starting rotation for most of the season.

The Astros just completed a 5-1 week to win our "Living The High Life" award as they distanced themselves a bit from the reeling Mariners (1-5).

Despite a rotation only vaguely resembling what was expected out of the spring, the emergence of Ronel Blanco and the in-season turnaround of Hunter Brown have helped propel the Astros to first place with 39 regular season games left.

Arizona Diamondbacks Swept by Tampa, but Still in Good Position

Entering the weekend series with Tampa Bay, the Diamondbacks were 20-5 after the All-Star break and, along with the San Diego Padres, the talk of baseball.

However, the team came up short, getting swept by the Rays. Still, the team is still 20-8 since the break and in possession of the second National League Wild Card Spot.

Not only that, but the MLB Regression Report, suggests that this is not a fluke, but rather the Diamondbacks are playing to their potential.

For this reason, the Diamondbacks at 69-56, win our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" award for this week.

Boston Red Sox Playoff Hopes Still Alive

The Boston Red Sox have struggled since the All-Star break, going just 12-16 and are 3.5 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot.

Furthermore, the regression report suggests the Bosox were overachieving in the first half and are now where they should be - on the fringe, but short of making the postseason.

That said, Boston has a chance to make a move beginning tonight with a three-game series in Houston and then a weekend series with the Diamondbacks in Boston.

If the Red Sox can hold their own this week things get a bit easier for a couple of weeks before the schedule toughens significantly down the stretch.

The Red Sox are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.