MLB Regression Report: Orioles Shut Down Opposition, Dodgers Steamroll Braves

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees look like they are going to battle all season long in the American League East with round one of their head-to-head matchups in 2024 taking place last week.

The Orioles won three of four games in the series, but more than that they shut the Yankees down, allowing New York just six runs across the four games.

Baltimore followed that up by holding the Cincinnati Reds to two runs in a three-game sweep, completing the week at 6-1 and outscoring their opponents 29-8.

That effort put the Orioles in first place in the AL East, 2 games ahead of New York in the loss column and earns the O's our "Living The High Life" Award of the week.

Just behind were the Dodgers, going 6-1 and outscoring their opponents 39-14, including a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves.

The regression report sees tougher times ahead for the Rays and Jays and with the Red Sox, Orioles, and Yankees in their division the reasons are fairly obvious.

Last week we mentioned the Yankees as looking "real" and that appears to still be true a week later.

After losing the series to the Orioles, all the Yankees did was sweep the Tigers, finish the week 4-3 and once again edge out the Pirates for our "They Are What They're Record Says They Are" team of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, I've struggled to make sense of the Astros' disastrous start and keep waiting for Houston to make a move.

Houston is a mindboggling 1-9 in one-run games and very easily could have had a 5-1 week, only to finish 3-3 on a six-game homestand.

The regression report suggests there's upside to Houston and while that is certainly possible, the upcoming three games in New York against the Yankees, followed by three in Detroit, four in Houston against the resurgent A's, and then three hosting the Brewers may mean it's now or never for Joe Espada's underperforming club.

Yet, despite the terrible start in Houston, neither the Mariners nor Rangers have run away with the American League West, leaving a very slight chance for the Astros and giving the team our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" Award for this week, but that's tenuous at best.

Justin Verlander is scheduled to start twice in the six games this week and that along with Ronel Blanco in another means the Astros have a chance to be hanging around when we get together and do this again next week.

Will they? I have my doubts.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in the "Wins over Expected" column are small at this early stage but will increase or decrement over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.