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MLB Regression Report: Padres Make Move, Dodgers Avoid Sweep in Houston and Royals Flounder

The Dodgers injuries and absences have helped tighten National League West race.

By Marty Coleman

Jul 28, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) hits a fly ball for an out against the Houston Astros during the fifth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 28, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) hits a fly ball for an out against the Houston Astros during the fifth inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
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As the trade deadline draws near we're getting a better sense of what the teams competing for playoff births will look like down the stretch.

The first full week after the All-Star break leaves us at about the two-thirds mark of the season and some teams appear to be separating from the pack, while others are falling back and are in danger of missing the postseason.

San Diego Padres Make Move in National League West

I've long thought that the National League West Champion was a done deal with the Dodgers looking like they would walk to the title during the first half as the Padres and Diamondbacks hovered around the .500 mark.

The Dodgers still hold a 6.5 game lead, but the Padres just finished the best week in the league, going 5-1 by sweeping the Nationals and winning two of three against the Orioles all on the road and gaining a game and a half on the Los Angeles.

Beginning tonight, San Diego hosts the Dodgers in a quick two-game set with the opportunity to shrink that lead right in front of them.

San Diego wins our "Living The High Life" Award for the week.

Los Angeles Dodgers Avoid Sweep in Houston Despite Depleted Lineup

Just last week, I wasn't concerned about the Dodgers mounting injury situation.

Then Freddie Freeman understandably left the team to be with his family and all of a sudden
Sunday's Dodgers lineup sported four players batting .204 or below as Los Angeles was trying to avoid a sweep in Houston.

They managed to score six runs and cruise to a 6-2 win, but it's difficult to envision long-term success with the lineup and rotation they threw out there against the Astros.

Freeman will hopefully be back soon, but there are holes that better teams than Houston will exploit.

Right now Los Angeles has the look of a 95-win team at most and at 63-44 win our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team for the week.

Royals Struggle, but White Sox Dead Ahead

Last week, I wrote "A sweep of the White Sox doesn't mean you've turned your season around" about the Royals and it looks like I was on to something.

Kansas City promptly lost four of six, losing home series to the Diamondbacks and Cubs to fall to 57-49.

The good news for Kansas City is they are still clinging to the final American League Wild Card spot and have three more against the White Sox in Chicago starting today before traveling to Detroit for four games.

The Regression Report suggests there's still some upside for the Royals and it'll be fascinating to see if this young team can make the postseason.

The Red Sox and Mariners are nipping at their heals, but the Royals are our "It Ain't Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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