MLB Regression Report: Royals Back on Track, Dodgers Dump Red Sox and Astros Take Lead in AL West

Typically every Monday in this space I share my thoughts on the prior week and highlight the trends I'm seeing across Major League Baseball.

Last week was a short one, with the All-Star game and break taking up much of the week, leaving most teams with three games and a couple with two for the week.

Even with the small sample storylines emerged and playoff positioning changed. Some I saw coming, and some surprised me.

Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers Go 3-0

The Royals finished the first half 11-13 throwing into question Kansas City's viability as a playoff team.

A sweep of the White Sox doesn't mean you've turned your season around, but any other result could have spelled doom. Instead, the Royals find themselves in the third Wild Card Spot with 62 games left on their schedule.

The Nationals are only 47-53, but also just 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot after sweeping a Cincinnati team I was high on.

The odds are slim that the Nationals will reach the postseason, but Washington has three consecutive series against teams ahead of them in the race, so the next 10 days will likely be defining.

The Dodgers have never been threatened in the National League West, but injuries have prevented this team from reaching their potential.

Then they went out and swept the Red Sox, dropping Boston to the outside looking in at the American League Wild Card race.

All three teams had good series to open the post-All-Star break portion of the schedule, but the Royals win our "Living The High Life" award for the week, gaining three games on the Red Sox and now leading for the final American League Wild Card Spot.

The New York Mets Frustrating As Always, Drop Two of First Three to Marlins

The Mets had a perfect opportunity to gain some ground in the Wild Card race, but have lost two of the first three at Miami, with the series finishing this evening. Yikes.

The Mets now find themselves in a three-way tie with the Diamondbacks and Padres for the final Wild Card spot, with the Pittsburgh Pirates only a half-game back of those three.

It feels like the Mets missed an opportunity and with a two-game series at the Yankees, followed by a home series with the Braves and Twins, it feels like now or never for the Mets.

The Mets win our "They Are What Their Record Says They Are" team of the week.

Seattle Mariners Avoid Sweep, Remain Viable in AL West Race

Sunday's win over the Astros was huge for Seattle as the Astros took the lead in the West with a win on Friday and and another on Saturday.

Giving up a 10-game lead in 24 days is devastating and given a Wild Card spot is not likely to come out of the division this season these games have huge regular season stakes.

The Mariners offense is not good, but their starting pitching is elite and will keep Seattle competitive in the race. The win also means Seattle leads the season series 4-3 and a three-game series in Houston in late September could determine the division champ.

It's certainly not over and Sunday's win makes the Mariners our "It's Not Over Till It's Over" team of the week.

What is the MLB Regression Report?

The MLB Regression Report uses a modified Pythagorean Theorem for Baseball formula that includes a team's record in calculating expected wins.

The numbers in "Wins over Expected" column will increase or decrease over the season as appropriate.

It is designed to assist in identifying teams that are either over or underperforming in win-loss records based on run differential and actual wins and losses on the field.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.