MLB Underdog of the Day (Orioles and Guardians Take Advantage of Struggling Opponents)

The Orioles are 8-2 in Tyler Wells' last 10 starts ahead of tonight's home matchup with Tampa Bay
The Orioles are 8-2 in Tyler Wells' last 10 starts ahead of tonight's home matchup with Tampa Bay / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Hey, do you like getting two for the price of one? I hope so. Thanks to the Guardians' lovely underdog cash for us yesterday, we've got some extra money to play with. Thus, I've got not one, but two tantalizing underdog picks for today.

I'll give you a hint: we're going back to the Well (s) with both bets.

While you wrap your mind around that brain-buster, let's jump into the MLB Underdogs of the Day, courtesy of odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Rays vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Rays -1.5 (+145)
  • Orioles +1.5 (-175)


  • Rays: -109
  • Orioles: -101


  • 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

Tampa Bay has won one single time over its last eight as a road favorite. The Rays' road woes should continue today with Drew Rasmussen facing Tyler Wells (Get it? Back to the Wells?...).

Rasmussen ranks in the 21st percentile in hard hit percentage and 26th in expected batting average, but he's a lucky guy and thus only has a 3.13 ERA on the season. In five of his last six starts though, he has an expected ERA higher than the actual ERA he produced. His expected ERA in total sits at 4.21 and there's only so long his luck can go.

Baltimore ranks seventh in OPS against right-handed pitchers at home this month and should make Rasmussen pay for his mistakes. The Orioles are 5-2 in their last seven as home underdogs and have covered the run line in 10 consecutive starts by Wells, winning eight of those games in the process.

Wells has a 3.66 expected ERA and ranks in the 62nd percentile in expected batting average, so he's considerably better than Rasmussen. Baltimore has a significant edge in the bullpen as well, giving the Orioles advantages at every level except defensively, where the clubs are essentially a wash.

Trust Wells to hand the Rays a fifth straight loss as they fall to 1-8 in their last nine as road favorites.

Pick: Orioles (-101)

Guardians vs Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Guardians +1.5 (-170)
  • Red Sox -1.5 (+140)


  • Guardians: +116
  • Red Sox: -126


  • 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bonus MLB Underdog Pick Today

Boom! Back to the well (nailed it) with Cleveland as Cal Quantrill takes on Nathan Eovaldi.

The Red Sox are melting before our very eyes. They're 2-10 in their last dozen games and 2-6 in their last eight as a favorite. Things won't get easier today and I love the value on the Guardians to pick up another win.

This is Eovaldi's third start since returning from the Injured List. In the first two, he gave up a dozen runs over seven innings, compiling a disgusting 15.43 ERA. He ranks in just the third percentile in average exit velocity and sixth in hard hit percentage on the season, so he wasn't particularly good even before he got hurt.

Now, it's clear he cannot be trusted. Especially not against the steady Quantrill, behind whom the Guardians have won seven of 10. Quantrill allowed three or fewer runs in 15 of his 18 starts, so he should mitigate damage against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 24th in OPS against right-handed pitchers in July.

Cleveland is 8-4 in its last dozen matchups as road underdogs. They're better offensively and defensively with the better starter and bullpen. Give me the Guardians as Eovaldi continues to spiral into disaster.

Pick: Guardians (+116)

If you're feeling adventurous, a two-team parlay of these underdogs pays +330 odds at WynnBET ($82.46 on a $25 bet).

I'll be playing them individually, but can't fault you if you take advantage of the value presented with a nice parlay.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.