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MLB Underdog of the Day (Baltimore Remains Undervalued Despite Incredible Stretch)

By Joe Summers

Adley Rutschman and the Orioles have won eight of their last 11 games as underdogs
Adley Rutschman and the Orioles have won eight of their last 11 games as underdogs / Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
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My colleague, Josh Yourish, is on a roll with these MLB Underdog of the Day picks. He's hit two straight after the Chicago White Sox came back against the Astros last night, so I'll do my best to carry the torch in his stead today.

Luckily, there's quite a bit of value on the slate. I've got one team in particular in mind, a team so dominant as an underdog they simply cannot be ignored.

Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, let's jump into why the Baltimore Orioles are going to smoke the Toronto Blue Jays yet again:

Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Orioles +1.5 (-145)
  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

  • Orioles: +155
  • Blue Jays: -170

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

The Baltimore Orioles have five consecutive wins against the Toronto Blue Jays and won five of Austin Voth's last six starts. They're hitting much better than Toronto right now and have a significant bullpen advantage.

Despite all of that, the Orioles are still underdogs today. Oddsmakers continue to overvalue the Blue Jays and undervalue Baltimore for whatever reason, so I'll just keep taking advantage of it.

Adley Rutschman is on a tear alongside Baltimore's lineup, which should continue to hit well against Ross Stripling. Stripling ranks in the 21st percentile in expected batting average and is due for some negative regression, with a 3.74 expected ERA compared to a 3.16 actual ERA.

On the other end, Austin Voth should contain a struggling Toronto lineup that ranks 24th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks. His expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.86 implies he's been quite unlucky to amass a 5.34 actual ERA.

With two clubs going in opposite directions, I'm sticking with Baltimore. The Orioles are 8-3 in their last 11 games as underdogs and remain the best story in baseball right now. For at least one more day, the story marches on.

Pick: Orioles (+155)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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