MLB Underdog of the Day (Dogs Are Barking in Cincinnati)

Madison Bumgarner hasn't won in a month but has great value against Cincinnati today
Madison Bumgarner hasn't won in a month but has great value against Cincinnati today / Norm Hall/GettyImages

Bang bang!

After cashing not one, but two underdogs yesterday, I'm wagging my tail and howling at the moon, baby. A $25 bet on a parlay with the Twins and Mets yesterday paid out $179.75 so we're off to a glorious start this week, indeed.

We've only got six games on the MLB slate today, but that doesn't mean we can't find value. Upsets happen every day, even when the schedule looks light.

Let's use the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to keep the good vibes rolling and look at my favorite MLB underdog of the day:

Diamondbacks vs Reds Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Diamondbacks +1.5 (-170)
  • Reds -1.5 (+140)


  • Diamondbacks: +108
  • Reds: -118


  • 9.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

My first thought when I saw this line was "Wait, Cincinnati is FAVORED?"

The Reds are 1-8 in Hunter Greene's last nine starts and just lost three straight games to the lowly Nationals. I know Arizona starter Madison Bumgarner hasn't won in a month, but this is downright disrespectul.

Bumgarner had a rough couple of starts at the end of May, but bounced back to hold the Braves to two runs over six innings last week. His expected ERA of 4.44 is admittedly not good, but Hunter Greene's is worse (4.69) and the Diamondbacks have one of the league's best defenses to help clean up any messes.

Don't underrate the defensive advantage Arizona has here. MLB Statcast has them with 16 Outs Above Average, good for third in MLB. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is 24th in the league with -9 Outs Above Average. Baseball hasn't even been on that long and the Diamondbacks' defense is 25 outs better than the Reds? That sounds like a lovely ingredient for an upset.

Arizona's bullpen is better than Cincy's as well, and the Diamondbacks' lineup is fourth in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last month. So with an offensive and defensive advantage, the only box left for Arizona to check is starting pitching.

Look, I like Hunter Greene. But the Diamondbacks can check this box, too. The flame-throwing rookie has a 6.59 ERA at home and has a problem with serving up home runs. Arizona averages the most home runs per game on the road, so things could turn into a disaster quickly for Greene.

As a cherry on top, the Reds are 3-9 as a favorite this year. No, that's not a typo. They have lost nine of the 12 games they were favored in. Don't think twice - back Arizona to improve to 11-8 in their last 19 as a road underdog.

Pick: Diamondbacks (+108)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.