Sometimes the perfect underdog ends up right on your lap. Other times, you search and you search until something looks a little more appealing, but by that point, you've probably just convinced yourself that a bad bet is a good bet.
In the case of the Pittsburgh Pirates vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening, the Pirates on surface look like a rough bet as a road dog. They're 20-37 away from home this season against a Diamondbacks team that's 31-28 at home despite being nine games below .500.
However, as I broke down earlier today, the value lies in today's pitching matchup.
Before we take a closer look at today's dog of the day, here are the latest odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total
- Pirates +1.5 (-150)
- Diamondbacks -1.5 (+125)
- Pirates +136
- Diamondbacks -146
- 8 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)
Best MLB Underdog Pick Today
The Diamondbacks have won three in a row at home, including the first two games of the series vs. the Pirates. But that streak ends today with Mitch Keller on the bump for Pittsburgh.
Keller's been stellar! Over his last five starts, he's pitched to a 1.74 ERA, going 6.1 innings per start. He's been remarkably consistent and just hasn't gotten anything back from his team; going 1-2 in those five starts.
So why back Pittsburgh's awful offense in this one to pull off the upset?
For as much as Keller has had luck go against him, it's the opposite for Madison Bumgarner. Sure, the win/loss record is still bad at 6-10, but Bumgarner has an ERA of 3.96, and an expected ERA viaFangraphs that's remarkably higher at 5.14.
When Pittsburgh scores five runs or more, it is 29-8 this season. Meanwhile, Mad Bum has allowed five runs in three of his last four starts. Possible collision course? I think so.
PICK: Pirates ML +136
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