Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Bradley Beal, Jalen Duren)

Tuesday was a much needed bounce-back day in our NBA Best Bets, as we hit four of five plays, including a plus-money 3-point prop for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

What if I told you, I have another tonight?

With an eight-game slate in the NBA on Wednesday, I have six plays, including four player props to take a shot on tonight. It's going to be a slow climb back to be profitable on the season, but we're trusting the process that has gotten us to up over 30 units in the last 2.5 seasons.

Let's talk some ball for Wednesday night:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 169-152-7 (-5.26 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 794-710-16 (+34.68 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Oklahoma City Thunder-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (-123)
• Miami Heat-Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 213.5 (-110)
• Jalen Duren OVER 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Isaiah Stewart OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Brandon Miller OVER 16.5 Points (-140) – 0.5 unit
• Bradley Beal OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+135) – 0.5 unit

Oklahoma City Thunder-Golden State Warriors ML Parlay (-123)

Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline

OKC won a close game against the Portland Trail Blazers last night, and now the team is on the road to take on Victor Wembanyama and the eight-win San Antonio Spurs. 

OKC thrives on the second night of back-to-backs (4-2 ATS) and the team is 18-9 ATS as a favorite and 21-6 straight up this season. 

I don’t see the Spurs – even with OKC playing its second game in as many days – winning this game. The Thunder won the first meeting between these teams by 36. 

Golden State Warriors Moneyline

The Golden State Warriors are back in action for the first time since the tragic passing of assistant coach Dejan Milojević when they take on the Atlanta Hawks.

There is certainly a motivation factor for Golden State to dedicate a win, but I’m fading Atlanta more because of the absence of Trae Young (concussion). 

The Hawks are just 5-10 ATS as road dogs and just lost by 15 to Sacramento. The team is also 10-13 straight up on the road. The Warriors have not been great as home favorites (5-12 ATS) – hence the moneyline pick – but I do think they pull off the win after several days off. 

Miami Heat-Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 213.5 (-110)

I think we have a prime UNDER spot in this matchup between Memphis and Miami. 

These teams are tied for the second-best UNDER record in the NBA at 25-18 this season, and the Grizz are down a ton of key players (Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart and more) – which limits the team’s offensive upside.

Even if Terry Rozier plays, Miami has been mucking things up as of late, leading to the team allowing the fifth-fewest points in the NBA this season. 

Plus, over its last three games, Miami ranks dead last in the league in points per game. Memphis is 29th in that category. 

Erik Spoelstra’s team is going to look to slow this game down – 29th in pace this season – and I can’t see the Heat letting Jaren Jackson Jr. have a big game with Bam Adebayo likely matching up with him. 

JJJ has been Memphis’ entire offense, averaging 29.7 points in his last three games. 

Jalen Duren OVER 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren is one of the few bright spots on the team’s roster, averaging 14.0 points and 11.5 rebounds per game this season, putting up 20 double-doubles in 28 games. 

Duren has a dream matchup with the Charlotte Hornets tonight, who rank 30th in defensive rating, 26th in rebounding percentage and 22nd in opponent points in the paint this season. 

Nick Richards (probable) is expected to return for Charlotte at the center spot, but he may not be enough against Duren, who is averaging 15.4 points and 12.0 rebounds per game since returning from an injury (14 games). 

Earlier this season, Duren dropped 14 points and 17 rebounds on the Hornets. He’s one of my favorite plays tonight. 

Isaiah Stewart OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-110) – 0.5 unit

Sticking with another Pistons big man, Isaiah Stewart is back in action after a lengthy absence, and he’s shooting the ball at a high clip since returning. 

In four games back in the lineup, Stewart has made multiple shots from deep in three of them, taking eight, six, five and six shots from 3 in those games. That usage is ideal for a prop like this, where he needs to make just two 3s for the OVER to hit. 

Beef Stew is shooting 38.2 percent from 3 on the season, and now he gets a Charlotte team that ranks dead last in the NBA opponent 3-point percentage and 25th in opponent 3s made per game.

Brandon Miller OVER 16.5 Points (-140) – 0.5 unit

I kind of love this Hornets-Pistons game for OVERs, as they are the two worst defensive teams in the NBA. 

No. 2 overall pick Brandon Miller is shining for the Hornets right now, scoring 23 or more points in three straight games,  and he should see an uptick in usage after the Terry Rozier trade by the Hornets. 

He’s attempted 14, 17 and 13 shots in those three games, and I think we could see that number push 20 depending on who picks up the Rozier slack in the offense. 

Miller is averaging 14.9 points per game and he put up 17 points in his lone meeting against Detroit (his second NBA game) even though he came off the bench in that matchup. 

Bradley Beal OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+135) – 0.5 unit

I’ll be honest, this play isn’t nearly as high of a percentage as our KCP prop last night. 

However, I still think there is a ton of value in what should be an offensive-minded game. 

Bradley Beal has hit multiple 3-point shots in just four of his last 13 games, but he’s taking 3.9 per game over that stretch including seven games with at least four 3-point attempts. 

Beal is also shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc, so if he gets four or more looks, there’s a good chance he’s knocking a couple down. 

The Dallas Mavericks rank 16th in opponent 3s made per game and 17th in opponent 3-point percentage this season. That’s not great, and I could see the team surrendering a few more open looks trying to defende Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. 

I won’t place a big bet on this Beal prop, but he’s worth a shot at plus money after hitting two 3-pointers in his last game. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.