Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Julius Randle, Nuggets, Warriors)

An absolutely massive day in our NBA Best Bets on Tuesday, going 3-1 with a second hit on Peter's Primetime Parlay in as many tries this season.

So, with 13 games on Wednesday night, I have another four plays to make for this slate.

There are a few games that I'm staying away from due to injuries that we don't know the status of. They could be games to bet later, but it's a little risky now with players questionable.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers are on the second night of a back-to-back and may not have Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. The rotation is already shot following the James Harden trade, so staying away until we get more clarity.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder: Brandon Ingram is questionable for New Orleans, and I don't love the idea of laying 3.5 points with OKC if he plays. So for now, I'm staying away.

Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics: Indiana is a 11-point dog in this game, which tells me that Tyrese Haliburton (questionable) may not play. Instead of laying that number with Boston hoping he doesn't play, I'll just stay away. If he does suit up and the line stays at +11, I don't mind a wager on the Pacers.

Now, let's recap the record for this season and dive into the picks for Wednesday:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 15-14 (+0.14 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 640-571-9 (+40.08 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Julius Randle OVER 21.5 Points (-105)
• Kyle Kuzma OVER 20.5 Points (-130)
• Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-130) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
• Golden State Warriors -7 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings

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Julius Randle OVER 21.5 Points (-105)

Julius Randle is DUE. 

The All-Star forward has struggled with his shot this season – 29.5 percent from the field, 32.0 percent from 3 – but he’s still shooting at volume, taking 14 shots in a season-low 31 minutes in a blowout win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday. 

The New York Knicks play the Cavs again on Wednesday night – this time at Madison Square Garden – and Randle could be in line for a bigger role with RJ Barrett listed as questionable for this game. 

Plus, the Cavs won’t have one of their best interior defenders in Jarrett Allen tonight. Randle showed some improvements on Tuesday, hitting 2-of-5 shots from beyond the arc. 

The last three seasons, he’s averaged 24.1, 20.1 and 25.0 points per game. He’s going to find his shot eventually, and I think that night could be with the Knicks returning home for the first time since opening night. 

Kyle Kuzma OVER 20.5 Points (-130)

There might be a track meet in addition to a basketball game when the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards face off tonight. 

These two teams are No. 1 (Washington) and No. 7 (Atlanta) in pace this season, and the Wizards are 29th in defensive rating while the Hawks clock in at No. 23. 

So, get ready for points to be scored. 

Kyle Kuzma, who has scored 21 or more points in every game, has been the best offensive player for the Wizards early on this season. 

In just 26 minutes in a blowout loss to Boston, Kuzma had 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting. He could push his usage from the second game of the season (23 shots) in this matchup, and I expect him to score against a weak Atlanta defense. 

Kuzma is shooting 48.2 percent from the field this season and 25.0 percent from 3. 

Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-130) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

The defending champion Denver Nuggets are a perfect 4-0 on the season, and I think they push it to 5-0 tonight. 

I’ve been unimpressed with the Minnesota Timberwolves this season, as they’ve lost to the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks, ranking 24th in offensive rating and 21st in effective field goal percentage. 

Now, they take on a Denver team that is humming at the moment – No. 4 in offensive rating and No. 5 in defensive rating – through four games. 

Last season, these teams split their season series, but the Nuggets were 2-1 in the three games that Nikola Jokic played in. I’ll back Denver at this short number on Wednesday. 

Golden State Warriors -7 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings

The Golden State Warriors beat this Sacramento Kings team by eight on the road last Friday, and now the team is laying just seven points at home with De’Aaron Fox sidelined for Sacramento? 

Thank you!

Golden State was the best team in the NBA against the spread last season at home, going 30-16-1 (including playoffs). 

So far this season, the Warriors are 3-1 against the spread overall, and they should get Klay Thompson (probable) back in the lineup. 

Steph Curry has been on a heater to start the season, scoring 40+ points in two of his four games – including the first matchup with the Kings. I love Golden State to take care of business at Chase Center tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.