NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Darius Garland, Cavaliers-Mavericks, Suns-Warriors and More)

There are few things better than an 11-game slate in the NBA, and I’ve got four picks to make as we look to build on a strong month in the NBA.

I’m looking at two road favorites and a pair of player props on Wednesday, although one player prop is a bit of a longshot. 

Let’s get into the picks for tonight’s action:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 174-161-3 (-1.4381 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Dallas Mavericks -3 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-110)
• Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Golden State Warriors (-115)
• Darius Garland OVER 23.5 Points (-125)
• Mitchell Robinson to Record a Double-Double (+205)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Mavericks -3 (-110)

Am I missing something here?

The Mavericks have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and have beaten a handful of playoff teams in that stretch, yet they’re only laying three points against a makeshift Cavs team.

The Cavs are down Evan Mobley (ankle), Jarrett Allen (finger), Collin Sexton (knee), Dean Wade (knee) and Rajon Rondo (ankle) and have slipped all the way to the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference. 

The Cavs, to their credit, have weathered the storm of several injuries this season, but losing Mobley to a sprained ankle on Monday against the Orlando Magic may have been the straw that breaks the camel’s back. 

Cleveland is just 19th in defensive rating and 20th in offensive rating in its last 10 games while Dallas is 10th and 24th in those respective categories. 

There’s always a fear that Dallas could rule guys out on the second night of a back-to-back, but only Reggie Bullock played over 31 minutes in the blowout over the Lakers. 

I can’t get to this number for the Cavs against Doncic and company, especially since they have lost to the struggling Chicago Bulls and Lakers over their last few games. 

Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors: Suns -4 (-115)

The Warriors have really struggled since Steph Curry hurt his foot, as they are just 1-5 in their last six games and have just a one-game lead on the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks. 

The Suns have been rolling since Chris Paul returned to the lineup, and they are looking to extend their winning streak to nine straight tonight. 

I know that Klay Thompson and Draymond Green still make Golden State a dangerous team, but there’s no way I’m backing the Warriors against the Suns considering that they have covered just once in their last seven games. 

Phoenix is No. 1 in offensive rating and No. 4 in defensive rating over its last 10 games, and Devin Booker is looking like a legitimate candidate to make the All-NBA First Team this season. 

The Warriors’ offense has fallen off without Curry, as they are 27th in offense and 21st in defense without him these past six games. 

I won’t fade the Suns until they give me a reason to, and the Warriors simply aren’t the same team without Steph. 

Darius Garland OVER 23.5 Points (-125)

I’m fading the Cavs as underdogs on Wednesday, but I’m going to back Darius Garland to have a big game with so many key players out. 

Yes, Dallas is one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, but Garland has been on fire since returning from his back injury, clearing this line in 11 of his last 14 games, averaging 25.8 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting from the field. 

You know I’m all about opportunity, and Garland is taking 19.8 field goal attempts and 6.8 3-point attempts over this stretch. He’s going to need to have similar volume for the Cavs to hang around in this one. 

Mitchell Robinson to Record a Double-Double (+205)

We’re taking a shot on this Mitchell Robinson prop after he put up 16 points and 12 rebounds in the New York Knicks’ win over the Chicago Bulls on Monday. 

Robinson has put up four double-doubles in his last 10 games, but he’s facing a Charlotte team that is horrible at defending the paint this season. The Hornets are 20th in opponent points in the paint and 28th in rebounding percentage this season. 

Mitch missed the Knicks’ 15-point win over the Hornets, but rookie Jericho Sims was able to score 10 points in that game in just 26 minutes. The Hornets just allowed 26 and 19 to Nikola Jokic, 20 and 17 to Andre Drummond and 11 and 19 to Rudy Gobert in their last three games. 

This is worth a shot for Mitch at +205.