NBA Best Bets Today: Predictions for Steph Curry, Josh Giddey, Spurs-Suns and More
By Peter Dewey
Who needs Monday Night Football when there's a 10-game slate in the NBA?
Not I, that's for sure.
Yesterday's best bets saw us get out to a strong start with the Houston Rockets' upset and a strong game from Christian Wood, but Gordon Hayward was unable to come through in the second half, finishing at 18 points when we had the over at 18.5. Not ideal.
Still, tonight's slate has several matchups that I like, starting with the Golden State Warriors hosting the Orlando Magic. I have a play on the total in that game as well as in the Atlanta Hawks-Minnesota Timberwolves game.
Let's keep the strong start to the week rolling with five picks, which may include a player prop from the Oklahoma City Thunder-Detroit Pistons game. Yes, I'll give you a reason to watch the league's two worst teams battle it out.
So, without further ado, tonight's NBA Best Bets!
All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 39-47-1 (-10.6632 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- San Antonio Spurs +8.0 vs. Phoenix Suns (-110)
- Golden State Warriors-Orlando Magic UNDER 218.0 (-110)
- Atlanta Hawks-Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 222.0 (-110)
- Steph Curry OVER 28.5 Points (-115)
- Josh Giddey OVER 12.5 Points (+100)
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns: Spurs +8.0 (-110)
The San Antonio Spurs upset the Golden State Warriors on Saturday and have won four straight games heading into another tough matchup against the Phoenix Suns on Monday.
This line has moved from +9.0 on Sunday night all the way down to +8.0 on Monday, but I still like the Spurs in this game.
Dejounte Murray is looking like a serious contender for the league’s Most Improved Player award, but can he lead the Spurs to a win over a Suns team that will be without Devin Booker again?
As good as the Suns have been this season, they have only covered in 12 of their 23 games and got blown out by Golden State without Booker on Friday.
The Spurs, on the other hand, have covered in 12 of their 21 games and are 6-5 against the spread on the road this season.
Gregg Popovich’s team is playing the best it has all season, and I think this is somewhat of a letdown spot for Phoenix as it tries to make due without Booker. Remember, the Detroit Pistons covered against Phoenix in a similar spot in the first game that Booker missed.
San Antonio has a top-10 defense this season in terms of defensive rating, and I think the Spurs can hang around in this game.
Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors: UNDER 218.0 (-110)
This is going to be a rough game for an Orlando team that is 27th in the NBA in offensive rating and 26th in the NBA in defensive rating.
Golden State is No. 2 and No. 1 in the league in those respective categories, and it has actually been great at covering at Chase Center despite being heavily favored in many games this season.
The Warriors are 10-3-1 against the spread at home this season, covering at a higher rate than every NBA team other than the Charlotte Hornets (7-2 ATS at home). As much as 15 points seems like too much to lay with the Warriors, five of their last six wins have been by 15 or more.
Still, I think the under is the best bet in this game. Orlando is averaging just 100.6 points per game this season, and the Warriors are allowing just 100.8.
Golden State has been the most profitable under team in the NBA (6-16-1 against the spread this season) and I think that continues against a Magic team that simply can’t keep up with the Warriors.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: UNDER 222.0 (-110)
The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a bad loss to a short-handed Charlotte Hornets team on Sunday night as they head into a back-to-back against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Hawks have struggled on the road this season, going just 3-9 against the spread, but Minnesota is just 6-7 against the spread at home this season.
There are plenty of injuries in this matchup, as D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns are both questionable for Minnesota and Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are all out for Atlanta.
Atlanta played an absolute track meet with the Hornets on Sunday night, losing 130-127, but I don’t know how they bounce back on the road against a Timberwolves team that is No. 5 in the NBA in defensive rating.
With several players out or potentially out, I like the under in this game considering Minnesota is 14-9 on unders this season and allows just 107.0 points per game.
Atlanta is No. 3 in offensive rating, but it plays at a slower pace (19th in the NBA) than you’d expect. The Hawks are also 3-2 on unders in back-to-backs this season.
Steph Curry OVER 28.5 Points (-115)
Steph Curry and the Warriors are 16-point favorites against a young Orlando Magic team that really struggles on the defensive end this season. Orlando is 26th in the NBA in defensive rating, is allowing 110.5 points per game and opponents average 13.2 made 3-pointers per game against the Magic this season.
This sets up as a great spot for Curry, whose points prop at WynnBET is at 28.5 (Over -115/Under -125) to hit the over tonight. Steph is still averaging 27.5 points per game and has gone over this number in eight games this season.
Curry has struggled shooting the ball as of late, going 4-for-21 in a loss to the Phoenix Suns and 7-for-28 in a loss to the San Antonio Spurs.
However, it’s worth noting that both Phoenix (No. 2 in defensive rating) and San Antonio (No. 10 in defensive rating) are far superior defensive teams than Orlando. Curry dropped 32 points on the league’s worst defense, the Portland Trail Blazers, just a few games ago, and there’s no reason to believe that he can’t find his form again at home tonight.
Five of Steph’s eight games going over 28.5 points have come at Chase Center this season, and he’s shooting better from the field (45.1 percent vs. 41.4 percent) and from 3 (41.5 percent vs. 40.2 percent) when playing in Golden State.
The usage will be there, so I’m trusting Steph to get back on track in a cupcake matchup tonight.
Josh Giddey OVER 12.5 Points (+100)
We’re going deep for this pick, as a struggling Oklahoma City Thunder team faces the Detroit Pistons on Monday night. The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (concussion) in this one, but I think that gives Josh Giddey some extra value.
The rookie is averaging 10.4 points per game, but he was on a nice stretch before missing the past two games, scoring 11 or more points in six of seven games.
I like Giddey in this spot because the volume is going to be there, as he’s taken double-digit shot attempts in eight of his last nine games. With SGA out, I think Giddey could pace OKC in points tonight against Detroit’s No. 22 defense.