NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Steph Curry, Warriors-Mavericks Game 4 in Western Conference Finals)

Golden State Warriors superstar Steph Curry.
Golden State Warriors superstar Steph Curry. / Tom Pennington/GettyImages

Even though the Golden State Warriors were heavily favored entering their series against the Dallas Mavericks, I don’t think anyone thought Steph Curry and company would be on the verge of a sweep to get back to the NBA Finals in Game 4

Luka Doncic simply hasn’t had enough help for the Mavericks to compete for an entire game in this series, and Golden State has dominated the second half in Games 1 through 3. 

We swept our picks in Game 3 of this matchup, and after a 2-1 night on Monday, my playoff record in the NBA sits at 64-50-1. 

Let’s break down picks for Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals: 

All odds via WynnBET Sportsbook:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 251-226-6 (+13.1445 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

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NBA Best Bets Today

  • Golden State Warriors-Dallas Mavericks UNDER 215.5 (-110)
  • Steph Curry OVER 27.5 Points (-105)

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks: UNDER 215.5 (-110)

There is a little fear that the Warriors have a clunker of a game similar to Game 5 of the second round against the Memphis Grizzlies, but Golden State has also looked like the best team in this series for all but the first half of Game 2. 

The Mavericks have very little adjustments to go to, as they’ve lost games where they’ve made 20 3-pointers and lost Game 3 with Luka Doncic scoring 40 points. 

The Warriors may want to close this series out sooner rather than later to rest up for the NBA Finals, but I’m going to lean with the total since Golden State is -105 to win the game. 

Only Game 2 went over this number, and the Mavericks made 21 shots from beyond the arc in that game while Golden State shot over 55 percent. 

That seemed like a bit of an anomaly, and with both of these teams ranking in the top seven in defense this season, I think we’re destined for another under game. 

If the Mavs have any chance to win, it’s going to be by slowing the game down and playing through Luka. That’s a recipe for the UNDER in Game 4. 

Steph Curry OVER 27.5 Points (-105)

I’m going to need Steph Curry to start getting some more respect for his performance in these playoffs. 

Despite coming off the bench to start the postseason because of injury, Curry is averaging 27.1 points per game while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from beyond the arc. 

He has cleared 27.5 points in five of his last seven games, and the Mavericks simply haven’t had an answer for him the last two games. Curry shot 11-for-20 from deep, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has another big scoring game as the Warriors try to complete the sweep.