NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Suns-Nuggets, Zach LaVine and Grayson Allen)
By Peter Dewey
Chris Paul reportedly is on his way back for the Phoenix Suns on Thursday against the Denver Nuggets, and Phoenix highlights one of our NBA Best Bets for today’s action.
On top of that, we have a couple of value player props with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middelton and DeMar DeRozan out of the lineup on Thursday night.
Let’s get into today’s picks!
All odds via WynnBET Sportsbook.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 162-159-3
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Phoenix Suns Moneyline vs. Denver Nuggets (+100)
- Grayson Allen OVER 9.5 Points (-125)
- Zach LaVine OVER 26.5 Points (+100)
Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets: Phoenix Suns Moneyline (+100)
I took the Suns as my upset pick of the day today, and now they will have Paul back in the lineup.
Phoenix is just 6-6 against the spread on back-to-backs this season, but it is also one of the best teams in the NBA as an away underdog, going 6-3 ATS.
Phoenix’s win on Wednesday actually helped Denver, as it gave Nikola Jokic and company a 1.5-game cushion on the Timberwolves for the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference.
That being said, I’m not a huge fan of Denver’s current form coming into this game, as the Nuggets have lost two of their last three games and have really slipped defensively after a strong start post-All-Star break.
The Nuggets are No. 16 in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and they are ninth in offensive rating, which are usually solid numbers. That is, unless you are playing a top-10 team in both categories like they are on Thursday.
Phoenix is sixth in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and third in net rating (plus-10.2) over their last 10 matchups.
Denver is also just 12-16 against the spread as a home favorite this season, so it’s not like Phoenix is going up against a team that is a juggernaut at home.
Grayson Allen OVER 9.5 Points (-125)
This is the biggest steal in the prop market on Thursday, as the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be without Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo on Thursday.
In 12 games with Middleton out of the lineup, Allen is averaging 16.9 points per game, and he’s going to see more opportunities on Thursday night with the reserves having to fill in. Allen has cleared this line in just six of his last 11 games, but I’m buying low with the Bucks’ two best scorers out of the lineup.
Zach LaVine OVER 26.5 Points (+100)
DeMar DeRozan is out of the lineup for the Chicago Bulls against the New Orleans Pelicans, and that means we’re targeting Zach LaVine in a scoring prop tonight.
LaVine has a usage rate of 29.0 percent this season, but that number increased to 32.3 percent when DeRozan is out of the lineup this season. Not only that, but LaVine has averaged 27.8 points per game on 20.8 shots per game in the four matchups DeRozan has missed.
LaVine is averaging 24.5 points per game this season, and he’s cleared this line in two of his last five games. I like him to have a big game on Thursday.