NBA Best Bets Today: Predictions for Thunder, Clippers, Evan Mobley and More

Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George.
Los Angeles Clippers guard Paul George. / Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

We've officially turned a corner in the NBA Best Bets column this past week, going 7-2 on picks on Friday and Sunday, inching the season-long record closer to .500 again.

I dug myself a major hole in early November, but it's been nice to see that some of the trends are holding true the past few days, and betting on Steph Curry seems like a lock every night with the way he's playing.

Tonight, we have a loaded NBA slate that is going to be a hell of a lot better than the Seattle Seahawks-Washington Football Team game on Monday night, so let's make a slew of picks why don't we?

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets are the least intriguing matchup of the night if you're looking for good basketball, but I'm still going to make a pick on the winner in Houston. On the player prop side, I'm eyeing a pair of youngsters, Evan Mobley and Keldon Johnson to get it done in their respective games tonight.

Here's a five stack of picks for the Nov. 29 slate in the NBA:

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

  • NBA Best Bets Record: 28-33-1 (-6.9078 units)

NBA Best Bets Today

  • Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline vs. Houston Rockets (+120)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 vs. Indiana Pacers (-110)
  • Los Angeles Clippers -7.0 vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-110)
  • Evan Mobley OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100)
  • Keldon Johnson OVER 14.5 Points (-105)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets: Thunder Moneyline (+120)

The Houston Rockets have won back-to-back games to improve to 3-16 on the 2021-22 season, and they host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night. 

OKC is just 6-13 on the season, but it has been one of the best teams in the NBA at covering the spread, going 13-6 (68.4 percent), which is the third best mark in the league. Houston picked up a pair of impressive wins over the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets, but I’m selling high on the Rockets while I can. 

I am shocked that a Houston team that lost 15 straight games earlier this season is favored in this spot. Yes, the Rockets beat the Thunder in their first meeting, but the team is now missing No. 2 overall pick Jalen Green due to a hamstring injury. 

These are the two worst teams in the NBA in terms of offensive rating this season, but Oklahoma City has a slightly better defensive rating (107.0) than Houston (109.2). The Thunder will have the best player on the floor in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight, and I think they come away with the upset win. 

Indiana Pacers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: Timberwolves -2.5 (-110)

Is this finally the year that Minnesota pulls things together? 

Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves have won six of their last seven games to pull themselves back to .500 on the season at 10-10. 

The Pacers are 3-1 against the spread this season in the second game of a back-to-back, and this line has actually moved in the favor from +3.5 earlier on Monday. However, I haven’t been a fan of this team all year, and I’m not rushing to back them tonight

Minnesota has the No. 10 defensive rating in the NBA, and it has impressive wins over the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers on this run. 

Indiana has used more Caris LeVert and less Domantas Sabonis on offense this season, and I think that plays into Minnesota’s hands tonight. Rick Carlisle needs to find a way to get Sabonis playing at an All-Star level again if Indiana wants to make the playoffs, and that’s going to be tough against a Minnesota team that has allowed less than 100 points in five of its last eight games. 

I like that this line has moved to 2.5 already and will gladly back the red-hot Wolves at home tonight. 

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Clippers: Clippers -7.0 (-110)

New Orleans won the first meeting between these two teams after Los Angeles went cold in the second half, scoring just 26 second half points and finishing the day shooting 37.8 percent from the field. 

I don’t see things playing out the same way in this matchup

While New Orleans has looked a bit more competent as of late, it still has the No. 26 offensive and defensive rating in the NBA this season. Los Angeles still holds the No. 2 spot in defensive rating, and it did hold the Pelicans to only 94 points in their first matchup this year. 

Barring another historically bad half by the Clippers, I think they take care of business at home where they are 9-5 straight up this season. The Pelicans are just 3-9 against the spread on the road this season, the third worst mark in the NBA.

I’ll gladly take the Clippers to cover the seven points at Staples Center tonight.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Dallas Mavericks: Evan Mobley OVER 7.5 Rebounds (+100)

Evan Mobley is back in the lineup after dealing with an elbow injury, and he turned in a 13-point, nine-rebound performance in the Cavaliers’ win over the Orlando Magic in his first game back. 

Mobley has grabbed 8.1 rebounds per game this season, and he’s gone over 7.5 boards in three straight games, including four of his last six. He hasn’t had less than seven boards in a game since Nov. 5, and the Mavericks have one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA (26th in the rebounding percentage at just 48.6 percent). 

I would have shied away from Mobley with the injury had his playing time been down, but J.B. Bickerstaff played him for 33:18 against Orlando. I love the value on this for him to hit the over. 

Washington Wizards vs. San Antonio Spurs: Keldon Johnson OVER 14.5 Points (-105)

Keldon Johnson is one of the best up-and-coming young players for the Spurs, and he’s had back-to-back strong games with 15 points against the Atlanta Hawks and 17 against the Boston Celtics. 

In fact, Johnson has scored 15 or more points in seven consecutive games that he’s taken double digit shot attempts. However, he’s had four games over his last 11 where he has taken nine or fewer shots and has fallen short of that number in all four. 

Translation: Get Keldon Johnson the ball! 

The third-year wing is averaging 15.1 points per game while shooting a solid 46.1 percent from the field and 39.2 percent from beyond the arc. I’m banking on him seeing the volume in this matchup with Washington.