NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions Jalen Brunson, Warriors-Nuggets and Every Playoff Game on Saturday)

We made it. 

It’s time for the NBA playoffs. 

I am absolutely fired up after a wild slate of play-in games has brought us to this moment, and with four first-round matchups on Saturday, I’ve got a best bet for every single one of them. 

Let’s keep the hot streak going and enjoy the best basketball in the world. So, without further ado, today’s picks: 

All odds via WynnBET:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• NBA Best Bets Record: 190-170-5 (+3.6324 units)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jalen Brunson OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
• Minnesota Timberwolves-Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 236 (-110)
• Toronto Raptors +4.5 vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-110)
• Golden State Warriors -6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets (-110)

Jalen Brunson OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be without superstar Luka Doncic in Game 1 against the Utah Jazz, but I think that gives us some value on a player prop on the Mavs side. 

Guard Jalen Brunson has been Dallas’ second-best player this season, and he’s going to handle the ball a lot more often, along with Spencer Dinwiddie, with Doncic sidelined with a calf strain. 

I love Brunson to go OVER 30.5 points, rebounds and assists in this game, as he’s been dominant when Doncic doesn’t play this season. 

In 17 games (not a small sample size) without Luka in the 2021-22 campaign, Brunson is averaging 20.4 points, 7.5 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game. That adds up to 31.8 PRA. 

I think Brunson gets even more run in a playoff game, and the Mavs may need to play a bit more uptempo than usual (last in the NBA in pace) against a Jazz team that has the No. 1 offensive rating in the league. 

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Memphis Grizzlies: UNDER 236 (-110)

I am making a contrarian play in this matchup, as I think the UNDER may be the best bet in a game between the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA. 

When you look at the previous four matchups between these two teams, only the Grizzlies’ overtime win on Nov. 8 finished with a total above 236. 

The Wolves played at an extremely fast pace, but that doesn’t translate to playoff basketball, where teams are traditionally more deliberate with their possessions. 

Over the last six seasons, the average pace in playoff games has been slower than regular season games in each year. 

Here’s how they line up: 

Pace in NBA: Regular Season – Postseason

• 2020-21: 99.2 – 96.1 (-3.1)
• 2019-20:  100.3 – 97.6 (-2.7)
• 2018-19: 100.0 – 97.5 (-2.5)
• 2017-18: 97.3 – 95.4 (-1.9)
• 2016-17: 96.4 – 94.6 (-1.8)
• 2015-16: 95.8 – 93.0 (-2.8)

This isn't groundbreaking, as team’s have to work harder for good shots in the playoffs. Take the Wolves-Clippers play-in game for example, as Minnesota won 109-104 and took just 83 shots when they averaged 91 shots per game in the regular season. 

This is just way too high of a number for me to trust in a playoff game, even with each team boasting a potent attack. 

Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Raptors +4.5 (-110)

I bet Toronto to win this series for several reasons, and I think that starts with the Raptors at least giving the Sixers a scare in Game 1. 

The Raptors won three of the four regular season matchups between these two teams, and they held Embiid to arguably his worst game of the season, a 6-for-20 shooting performance in a loss. 

The biggest issue for Philly is the coaching area, as Nick Nurse is masterful at making adjustments and should run circles around Doc Rivers, who still insists on playing DeAndre Jordan.

It may not be as big a factor in Game 1, but this certainly will catch up to Philly in the series. 

As for this game, I think it comes down to whether or not James Harden can get back to his old self. Harden is shooting just 33 percent from beyond the arc (worst of his career) and 41 percent from the field (worst since his rookie season) in the 2021-22 campaign. If he can’t get going against a tough Toronto defense, the Sixers are going to need a big game from guard Tyrese Maxey to supplement. 

The Raptors were strong as road dogs this season, going 15-11-1 against the spread. I think they cover in Game 1, and they are certainly live to upset a team that may live and die by Embiid all postseason. 

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors: Warriors -6.5 (-110)

Steph Curry’s return has really changed the complexion of this game, as the Warriors opened as 4.5-point favorites at WynnBET when his status was truly up in the air. 

Golden State has a top three defensive rating in the NBA this season, and it is one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 31-10 straight up and winning by an average of 9.9 points per game.  

We really haven’t seen much of the Curry-Thompson-Green trio in action, but it’s hard to doubt them given all the success they’ve had together in the past. 

I think Jordan Poole, who is having a career year, is the key for the Warriors as they are 32-16 this season when Poole scores 15 or more points. 

Jokic is going to be a problem for Golden State (he averages 28.0 points, 15.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field against them this season), but I don’t see Denver’s supporting cast bringing enough offense to beat Golden State at home with Curry.

How should you navigate the NBA playoffs and futures market? The BetSided has you covered in the NBA edition of "Fraud or Future!"