NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Jimmy Butler, Celtics-Heat in Eastern Conference Finals Game 1)
By Peter Dewey
The Eastern Conference Finals are here, and we’ve got a rematch from the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.
Boston is an underdog in Game 1 at WynnBET, but it is favored in the series. Even though the Heat are the No. 1 seed, oddsmakers clearly believe in the Celtics after they beat the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks to make it to the ECF.
Let’s get into my favorite prop and spread pick for Game 1 of the Celtics-Heat series:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 239-221-5 (+8.1671 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Boston Celtics +2 vs. Miami Heat (-110)
- Jimmy Butler OVER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-130)
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat: Celtics +2 (-110)
There are some people that will subscribe to the “letdown game” after a Game 7 victory, but this Boston team is just different.
The Celtics have been on a wild run since late January, and they didn’t have to exert too much effort in a pretty easy win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday.
The Boston Celtics are now 34-9 since January 29th.
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) May 16, 2022
Five of those nine losses are by 3 points or less.
The Celtics have been playing a man short in their rotation with Williams out, so his return should be a major boost for the team going forward.
On the other side, Miami has yet to lose a home game in the playoffs, but it has shown it is vulnerable to strong interior defense (see Games 3 and 4 against the Philadelphia 76ers).
The Heat are about as deep as a team comes, but I like Boston’s top two players a lot better than a Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo duo.
This is going to be a defensive rock fight that likely comes down to the role players, hence the short spread. Boston’s guys have stepped up continuously in this postseason run, while Butler has been the straw that stirs the drink for Miami.
After seeing the Celtics give Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant Jrue Holiday and at times Giannis Antetokounmpo trouble, I think Miami may have a tough time scoring in this series.
I’ll take Boston with the points in what should be a great Game 1.
Jimmy Butler OVER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-130)
This line has been around 38.5 for Jimmy Butler in most of the playoffs, but with the No. 1 defense coming to town, oddsmakers have moved it to 36.5.
I still think that makes the OVER the play, as Butler has been elite in these playoffs and has orchestrated the offense with Kyle Lowry out.
Here’s a look at Butler’s PRA numbers in the series against the Philadelphia 76ers: 27, 40, 44, 49, 38, 44.
He’s cleared 36.5 PRA in all but two games this postseason, and he does things other than score that should help him reach this number even if the Celtics try to take him away defensively.
The volume is also huge for Butler, as he’s taking 19.8 shots, 4.4 3-pointers and 7.8 free throws per game. If he reaches that again in Game 1, I think he clears 36.5 PRA with ease.