NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions for Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul and Suns-Mavericks on Thursday)
By Peter Dewey
We have yet to see a team advance to the Conference Finals in these NBA Playoffs, but the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns have a chance to do so Thursday night.
I’m looking at a trio of player props, two in the Heat-Philadelphia 76ers game, as well as a moneyline pick in the Suns-Dallas Mavericks Game 6.
Let’s get into the picks for the Game 6 action tonight:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 234-215-5 (+9.7702 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- James Harden UNDER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
- Jimmy Butler OVER 38.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
- Chris Paul OVER 8.5 Assists (-140)
- Phoenix Suns Moneyline vs. Dallas Mavericks (-130)
James Harden UNDER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
This James Harden prop has been money in the playoffs, and even with the Sixers back at home, I don’t think Harden turns back the clock in Game 6.
Gabe Vincent is getting the start again for Kyle Lowry in Miami, and that just adds another strong defender to frustrate Harden on Thursday. Harden has cleared this number just one time in the first five games of this series, and he didn’t even come close in Game 5 with 24 points, rebounds and assists, or PRA.
Fade Harden until we can't anymore.
Jimmy Butler OVER 38.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110)
I’m going back to the well with this Jimmy Butler prop. He finished Game 5 with 38 PRA, but was pulled with about nine minutes left due to the blowout win.
With Kyle Lowry still out, Butler is going to take more control of the playmaking duties for the Heat, and he’s cleared 38.5 points, rebounds and assists in five of his nine playoff games. Butler has also cleared it in three of five games in this series.
Butler has been the best player on the floor for the majority of this series, and he’s seen a ton of minutes for Miami. I think a closer Game 6 will allow him to go over this number.
Chris Paul OVER 8.5 Assists (-140)
This has been a weird series for Chris Paul, who struggled with foul trouble in Dallas, but I think he’s gotten back on track as a playmaker.
Paul was well on his way to clearing his assist prop in Game 4, but he ended up fouling out with over eight minutes to play and finished the game with just 23 minutes of action.
Paul rebounded nicely with a 10-assist showing in Game 5, and we can’t forget that he averaged 10.8 assists per game during the regular season.
There is a lot of juice on this prop, but I think CP3 clears it with ease in Game 6.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks: Suns Moneyline (-130)
BetSided’s Reed Wallach found an interesting stat on Wednesday, as home teams in Game 6 of the NBA playoffs have historically struggled against the spread and straight up.
Since the 2010-11 season, home teams are just 26-49-1 against the spread, and home underdogs like the Mavericks are a dismal 5-23-1 straight up.
As well as the Mavericks played in Games 3 and 4, it took putrid performances by the Suns offense, turning the ball over 17 times in both games, for the Mavs to come away with wins.
The Mavericks were unable to bring that momentum back into Game 5, as they returned to getting absolutely blown out by the Suns in Phoenix.
When the Suns are going on offense, they are one of the harder teams in the league to stop, and the Mavericks’ hot shooting seems to be running on fumes at this point in the playoffs.
I’ll follow the trend and back the Suns to come away with the win on Thursday.
How is the BetSided team betting the games of the night?
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