The second round of the NBA playoffs has been a little rougher in our NBA best bets, and I’m not sitting at 40-35 in the playoffs after a horrible De’Anthony Melton beat ruined a .500 night on Saturday.
Melton’s points were set at 10.5, but he made a layup in the closing seconds to hit the over. Not ideal.
That being said, we have a pair of important Game 4s on Sunday, as the Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers look to even their respective series.
I’ve got you covered with three I’ve placed for Sunday’s action.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- NBA Best Bets Record: 225-209-5 (-3.289 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record in the NBA this season here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Suns Team Total OVER 108.5 Points (-110)
- Tyler Herro OVER 15.5 Points (-105)
- Luka Doncic UNDER 51.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Suns Team Total OVER 108.5 Points (-110)
This is my favorite bet in this game, as the Suns have put up 109 or more points in every playoff win and in seven of their nine postseason games this year.
Phoenix was fifth in the league in offensive rating this season, and it took 17 turnovers for the Suns to lose Game 3 and be held to just 94 points.
When Phoenix doesn’t turn the ball over, it can pile up points in a big way, and it scored 129 and 121 points in the first two games of this series. This number feels like a bit of an overreaction to an outlier game by the Suns in Game 3.
Tyler Herro OVER 15.5 Points (-105)
I mentioned Tyler Herro’s points prop as my best bet on today’s episode of Bet & Breakfast, and there’s a few reasons why.
Herro scored just 14 points on 5-of-15 shooting in Miami’s 79-point performance in Game 3, but it was obvious that the Heat were going to have a tough time getting into the paint in that matchup with Joel Embiid back in the lineup.
That lines up perfectly for Herro to really thrive as a jump shooter in Game 4, and the volume has been there for him over his last few games taking 15, 10, 17 and 12 shots over his last four.
The Heat need someone to create their own shot, and who better than Herro who averaged 20.7 points per game in the regular season and won the Sixth Man of the Year award.
If Philly tries to force Miami to take more jump shots, it’s going to be a game where the Heat have to rely on Herro to get things done.
Luka Doncic UNDER 51.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Don’t get this twisted, Luka Doncic has been TERRIFIC in the NBA playoffs.
However, he has also cleared this total just one time in six playoff games, and it came in his 45-point performance in Game 1 of this series.
The Suns haven’t had an answer for Doncic, but he has cooled off in the second half of games. With Jalen Brunson playing more with the ball in his hands this postseason, Doncic has seen his assists per game drop from 8.7 per game in the regular season to 6.8 per game in the postseason.
I think Luka can put up a strong performance, but his number is inflated just enough for me to take the under.