NBA Championship Predictions: Best Bets to Win the NBA Finals from BetSided Experts
The NBA playoffs are upon us, and the BetSided editors are ready to unveil their picks to win the NBA Finals this season.
Peter Dewey, Ben Heisler, Reed Wallach and Donnavan Smoot make their case for who you should bet to win the NBA Finals at WynnBET, and who they will be facing.
If you’re looking for even more breakdowns on the futures market in the NBA, check out the latest episode of “Fraud or Future” below:
So, who’s going to win it all? Let’s get into all of the picks:
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns (Suns in 7) – +250
I think we’re getting an NBA Finals rematch from the 2020-21 season, as the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns will meet in this year’s championship.
I do have a future on both of these teams to win the NBA Finals, but I think they are also simply the best teams in their respective conferences.
When you look at the advanced numbers, the Suns rank fifth in offensive rating and third in defensive rating, the only team in the NBA in the top five in both categories.
The Bucks are elite on offense, ranking third in the league, but they are slightly worse defensively coming in at No. 14. Milwaukee is also going to have a tough second round matchup with the Boston Celtics or Brooklyn Nets, but I like the Bucks’ depth a lot more than both of those teams.
For the Suns, the road will get tough if they play the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, but this Suns team dominated everyone in the NBA this entire season. A few weeks ago, I came across an interesting historical trend that supports the Suns winning the title.
Obviously, anything can happen in the NBA playoffs, but as our own Joe Summers’ pointed out, every NBA champion from 2005 on had a top eight net rating (Suns are No. 1), top 11 offensive rating and top 11 defensive rating.
The only teams that meet that criteria in the NBA playoffs? The Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, Boston Celtics and Miami Heat (tied for 11th in offensive rating).
Phoenix has been the best team in the league all season, and I don’t expect that to change come playoff time. Suns in seven. – Peter Dewey
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns (Suns in 6) – +250
Last year, the Suns weren't expected to be here. This year, they are, and more importantly, they showed that they didn't skip a beat without their most important player on the floor in Chris Paul.
Paul missed 17 regular season games, and Phoenix still finished 64-18; leading the NBA's best record by eight full games over the Memphis Grizzlies. More importantly, Phoenix went 11-6 without Paul in the lineup.
Now that he's back, they can be even lethal. Per Cleaning the Glass, with Paul on the court, the Suns ranked in the 92nd percentile in effective field goal percentage and 97th in turnover percentage, They also were in the 90th percentile in those stats defensively.
Like so many other NBA Finals in years past, I expect a rematch between Phoenix and the Milwaukee Bucks, with the Suns fixing the mistakes from a season ago. As for Paul, health and Scott Foster (0-12 in Scott Foster officiated playoff games) remain two key concerns, but too much has gone right for Phoenix this year to let that get the best of it again.
Last year my Suns 80/1 ticket came up short. This year, since I haven't bet them, they'll get it done. Give me Phoenix in six. -- Ben Heisler
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors (Bucks in 6) – +500
The Golden State Warriors will have a healthy Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson for the first time in three years. It’s hard to bet against that trio, especially when they’re rolling. Although the Suns are rolling, I think the Warriors have a better cast of perimeter defenders and will get past the Suns.
On the other side of the bracket, Milwaukee has the least amount of holes in the East. Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at an all-time level, and I don’t think anyone can stop him.
The Bucks have shown they have what it takes to battle in the playoffs and stay standing on the other side.
When it gets to the Warriors versus Bucks, I think the Bucks win in similar fashion to last year’s playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo will simply dominate against a smaller lineup and occupy so much attention on offense and cover an immense amount of ground on defense, giving the Bucks the edge. – Donnavan Smoot
Brooklyn Nets vs. Phoenix Suns (Nets in 6) – +600
Not the most valuable bet to have but ultimately it's the winner. The Brooklyn Nets have the best player on the floor in all series in Kevin Durant and a defense that has quietly crept inside the top 10 over the last month according to defensive rating.
Brooklyn's path isn't easy, but it matches up well with Boston (especially with Robert Williams sidelined for most of the series), and has gone toe-to-toe with Milwaukee in the past despite being short handed at times.
That's a coin flip series and the return of Ben Simmons could tip the scales for Brooklyn even in a limited role. I think Brooklyn can right the ship after losing last year in a Game 7 on its home floor by beating Milwaukee and by then, the team will be rolling through whoever is around in the ECF.
Any opponent that comes from that side of the bracket lacks the offensive firepower to keep up with the Nets.
In the Finals, Phoenix's dominant regular season was nice, but it will stand no match to Durant and Kyrie Irving. Nets in 6 over the Suns. – Reed Wallach