Looking to get bold and take a moneyline underdog in the NBA tonight?
You’ve come to the right place.
The NBA is one of the hardest leagues to bet on, mainly because upsets are hard to predict, but they can be routine, especially in games with smaller spreads.
The 3-point shot has become the great equalizer, and just last night we saw the Golden State Warriors erase a 20-point second half deficit to upset the San Antonio Spurs in a game where Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were all out of the lineup.
Betting on the NBA can be frustrating, but there is nothing better than making the right upset pick, which is what we’re trying to do tonight.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s slate at WynnBET, there is one game that stands out to me: the Denver Nuggets going on the road to face the Utah Jazz.
Denver is +130 on the moneyline in this game and is a 3-point underdog at WynnBET.
Nuggets vs. Jazz Prediction
I am all over Denver in this game and there are a variety of reasons as to why.
Denver has been playing well lately, winning seven of its last 10 games, and MVP candidate Nikola Jokic has been dominant over his last 20 games. He is averaging 26.2 points, 14.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 55.1 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from deep over that stretch.
The Jazz, on the other hand, are not the same team when Rudy Gobert doesn’t play, and they will be without him, Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles on Wednesday.
Utah is just 1-8 when Gobert doesn’t play this season, and it has lost five straight games heading into this matchup.
Losing your defensive anchor and leading scorer at the same time is a recipe for disaster, and the numbers back up Utah’s poor record as of late. This team is losing because it has been simply horrible with Gobert out.
When Gobert is out of the lineup, the Jazz have a defensive rating of 122.0 this season, which would be the worst mark in the NBA by far. That, coupled with the lack of offense with Mitchell out makes this a perfect spot to take the Nuggets as an underdog.
Why Is Denver an Underdog in vs. Utah?
It may seem like this is a game where the Nuggets should be favored, and while I think that we’re getting some value because the Nuggets played and were blown out on Tuesday night by the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Back-to-backs are tricky in the NBA, as teams will rest players in the second game of the stretch, but Denver has not listed any key players out for rest as of this writing.
The Nuggets have also gone just 2-6 against the spread on back-to-backs this season, but I’m not letting it scare me away with how banged up Utah is. While the Jazz are at home, there is no denying that they are a completely different team when Gobert is out.
Pick: Nuggets Moneyline (+130)
Peter Dewey’s betting record is 107-113-2 (-15.11 units) in the NBA this season. You can find all of his picks here.