NC State vs. Purdue Final Score Prediction for NCAA Tournament Final Four
By Reed Wallach
NC State’s Cinderella run has continued into the Final Four, and in its way from an improbable National Championship Game is Purdue, who is led by the best player in college basketball, 7’4” Zach Edey.
With such a compelling matchup between an underdog on as surprising a run as we have ever seen in the NCAA Tournament going up against a formidable opponent in Purdue, let’s try our hand at predicting the final score!
Sure, it’s a long shot, but it can give some insight into how I envision this game will play out.
Below, you will find the key betting information, including odds, our betting preview and our final score prediction for this Final Four showdown.
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NC State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total
NC State vs. Purdue Betting Preview
The Wolfpack are an average post defense, ranking in the 44th percentile in points per possession allowed, per Synergy Sports, and the team sends teams to the free throw rate at a nationally average rate, according to KenPom. That will be a point of emphasis in this game with Edey leading the nation in free throw attempts and the Wolfpack essentially running a seven man rotation at this point in the season.
Edey has shown he is capable of passing out of double teams, the strength to fight through post defense and draw fouls, or turn around and finish over big men. Given the way he is able to use his body to get to his spot, or get fouled in the process, I don’t envision NC State will have an answer for him.
On the other side, Burns will have his hands full on the block against Edey, giving up about seven inches of height to the soon to be back-to-back Wooden Award winner. The Wolfpack will need to have a strong shooting performance, which hasn’t been the catalyst for its run, it has done it with its defensive ability.
NC State’s opponents are shooting about 24% from beyond the arc in the four tournament games. While a testament to the team’s defense, I do believe there is some looming regression for the Wolfpack as the team needs to give Edey attention, which can open up perimeter shots for the Boilermakers’ stable of shooters that are shooting over 40% from beyond the arc as a team this season.
The end of the road is here for NC State, and I think it comes in blowout fashion.
NC State vs. Purdue Final Score Prediction
As noted above, NC State’s defense has been the catalyst for the team’s March Madness success, but Purdue is equipped to handle the Wolfpack’s defense with either Edey around the rim, or kicking out to an array of knockdown three-point shooters.
The Wolfpack haven’t faced a physical team like the Boilermakers, namely Edey, who gets to the free throw rate at a higher rate than any player in the country. It’s hard to slow down Edey with anybody, and Kevin Keatts essentially has two big men in his rotation that can hold a candle to slowing down the Boilermakers big man.
Foul trouble can be the downfall of the NC State defense, but also its lack of perimeter prowess. The team can continue to run through Burns in the post, but he is giving up a ton of size to Edey, who is an elite post defender.
Despite this hot stretch of play, NC State is still outside the top 100 in three-point percentage, so I don’t believe the team wants to get into a shootout with Purdue, who is second in the nation as a team in three-point percentage at over 40%.
I think NC State struggles to keep up and Purdue slows this game down with Edey post ups and eventually pulls away to cover the spread and win comfortably.
Final Score Prediction: Purdue 76, NC State 63
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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