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NC State vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds and Key Players for ACC Tournament Semifinal (Wolfpack set for ACC Finals)

By Reed Wallach

Mar 13, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Jayden Taylor (1)
Mar 13, 2024; Washington, D.C., USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Jayden Taylor (1) / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
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NC State's dream run in the ACC Tournament continued on Thursday night, stunning Duke in the quarterfinals to set up a rubber match against Virginia in the semifinals.

The Wolfpack and Cavaliers split the season series and now the stakes are high with the Woos playing for an NCAA Tournament berth as well as a spot in the finals in the conference tournament. Who should we bet on Friday night? Here's our full betting preview:

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NC State vs. Virginia Odds, Spread and Total

Virginia vs. NC State Betting Trends

  • Virginia is 17-14-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • NC State is 15-18-1 ATS this season
  • NC State has gone OVER in 19 of 34 games this season

NC State vs. Virginia How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 15th
  • Game Time: 9:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Capital One Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • NC State Record: 20-14
  • Virginia Record: 23-9

NC State vs. Virginia Key Players to Watch

NC State

DJ Horne: Horne missed the first round, but in the past two games he has combined to score 34 points while getting downhill and creating free throw opportunities for the Wolfpack. He struggled in the loss at UVA as Reece Beekman won that matchup, limiting Horne to nine points with only three field goals on 12 tries. Can Horne ride the momentum and outduel Beekman in the semis?

Virginia

Reece Beekman: Beekman struggled to score, but operated at a high level as a facilitator, dishing out 11 assists in the overtime win and hit a clutch three in the extra session as well. An elite point-of-attack defender, Beekman will have the task of slowing down a bevy of NC State guards that are fresh off a strong showing against an elite Duke team.

NC State vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

From this morning's Daily Dunk:

Virginia escaped a win against Boston College despite a porous offensive effort, pulling away to win as five-point favorites against the Eagles in overtime.

The team draws a surging North Carolina State team that has been resurgent on offense in ACC Tournament play. The Wolfpack are playing its fourth game in four days, but provide much more firepower than the prodding Cavaliers offense.

Virginia's woes against Charlottesville have continued, a team that is outside the top 300 in away from home rating, and it was apparent in this series as well. The team lost by 16 in Raleigh as NC State shot north of 62% on two's in the win, but did win in overtime in the rematch.

While this game may be played in the half court as Virginia pleases, the Wolfpack have proven capable of scoring that way. The team is right around the national average in terms of points per possession in the half-court and has plenty of isolation scorers that can go get a bucket, including the now-healthy DJ Horne, as NC State is 96th in points per possession.

Virginia won ugly on Thursday and was lucky to cover. I don't think the team gets as lucky against a potent NC State offense.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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