NFL Best Bets for AFC and NFC Championship Games (Who Will Cover the Spread?)
Looking for a best bet for the AFC and NFC Championship Games this weekend?
The BetSided team of Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan have you covered with a pair of picks for this weekend's action. The final four teams will face off, with the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game and the San Francisco 49ers hosting the Detroit Lions in the NFC title game.
Dewey and MacMillan are 19-8-1 in their best bets over the last 14 weeks after a 1-1 showing in the divsional round.
Here's where they're going for their best bets this week!
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NFL Championship Game Best Bets
Detroit Lions +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
I love the Detroit Lions on Sunday night, even though everyone will tell you that the Lions’ defense isn’t a great unit — especially against the pass.
Since 2021 when Dan Campbell took over as Detroit’s head coach, the team is 21-10 against the spread as an underdog, including a 2-1 mark ATS this season. Not only that, but the Lions are 17-4 ATS as dogs of four or more points over this stretch.
After failing to cover in the divisional round, the San Francisco 49ers and Kyle Shanahan have slipped to 3-6 against the spread as home favorites in the 2023 season.
Overall, Shanahan is 20-22-1 ATS as a home favorite in his head coaching career.
The Lions allow the sixth most passing yards in the NFL this season and the third most net yards per pass attempt. However, the team had the third best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed (3.7) in the regular season.
If you’re Detroit, wouldn’t you rather force Brock Purdy to beat you?
Outside of the final drive against Green Bay, Purdy struggled in the divisional round. I think he's beatable in this matchup, and getting a whole touchdown is a great sign for the Lions' chances to cover.
Plus, Deebo Samuel’s status for this game is up in the air. San Fran is just 8-9 straight up without the star wideout since he’s been drafted.
San Francisco could still win this game, but I love Detroit to cover. -- Peter Dewey
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If styles make fights, then the Baltimore Ravens are the obvious bet in the AFC Championship.
The biggest weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs' defense is their inability to stop the run. The Chiefs rank 25th in opponent yards per carry, giving up 4.5 yards per rush. They also gave up 4.7 yards per carry to the Bills last week.
If you look at some more advanced metrics, they're 28th in opponent EPA per rush and 15th in opponent rush success rate.
That's bad news for them this week considering no team runs the football more than the Ravens and few teams run the ball better. They average 5.0 yards per carry and come in at third in both rush EPA and rush success rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens enter with arguably the best pass defense in the league, allowing just 5.2 yards per pass attempt, the best mark in the NFL.
I'll lay the points with the Ravens and do the unthinkable by betting against Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. -- Iain MacMillan
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!