NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round (One Total, One Spread in This Week's Predictions)
The final few weeks of the NFL playoffs are here, which means there are only so many more "Best Bets" to place this season.
This week, BetSided's Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan each have their favorite pick for the divisional round action, which has a couple of larger spreads than you'd likely expect for playoff games.
Dewey and MacMillan are 18-7-1 in their best bets over the last 13 weeks after a 1-1 showing on Wild Card Weekend. The Los Angeles Rams covered as three-point underdogs last week, but the Miami Dolphins could not do the same as 4.5-point dogs.
Which teams should you wager on this weekend? We have you covered with our two favorite bets:
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NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
There may not be a better gift from Vegas than setting Patrick Mahomes as an underdog in the playoffs in his first true road playoff game.
Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and 7-3 straight up in his NFL career, and on top of that he's 2-0 straight up against the Bills in the playoffs.
I broke down in this week's NFL spread picks why I love the Chiefs to at least cover in this game:
"I think Kansas City is live to pull off the upset in this game, but the team will at least keep things close. KC ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense, and the Bills have had issues with turnovers (28 in the regular season) all season long.
"Buffalo is just 5-4 ATS as a home favorite this season. I love Mahomes getting points whenever we can take it."
Chiefs +2.5. Lock it in. -- Peter Dewey
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 43.5
Both offenses in this matchup poorly with the strengths of the opposing defense.
For example, no team runs the ball more than the Baltimore Ravens with 50.28% of their plays being running plays. Now, they face a Texans defense that's second in opponent yards per carry (3.5), sixth in opponent rush EPA, and first in opponent rush success rate.
Teams have been able to throw the ball against them, but that's generally not what the Ravens do. They might struggle to get their offense firing on all cylinders against the stout run defense of the Ravens.
On the other side of things, 72.1% of the offensive yards gained by the Texans come through the air, which is the second highest mark in the NFL.
Now they face a Ravens team that has arguably the best secondary in the league, ranking first in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.1), second in opponent dropback EPA, and fourth in opponent dropback success rate.
CJ Stroud could be in for a long night.
Finally, you can toss in the fact these two defenses rank inside the top eight in the NFL in opponent third down conversion rate and both in the top half of the NFL in red zone defense and we all of a sudden of a recipe for a low-scoring affair.
I'll take the UNDER. -- Iain MacMillan
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.
You can check out all of Iain's bets here!