NFL Best Bets for Week 17 (Patriots Will Challenge Red-Hot Bills)

Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA;  Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles
Oct 22, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) scrambles / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Week 17 of the NFL season is here which means each team has just two games left to play in the regular season with plenty of playoff sports still up for grabs.

Over the last 10 weeks, myself (Iain MacMillan) and Peter Dewey have gone a combined 14-5-1 with our best bets on a weekly basis. This week, I'm on my own with Mr. Dewey enjoying the holiday break.

Let's see if I can't give you two winners as I break down my two very best bets for Week 17 action in the NFL.

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NFL Week 17 Best Bets

New England Patriots (+13.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

As a noted Patriots hater, it pains me to say this but I truly don't think New England is as bad as its record indicates. It's a big reason why I correctly bet them to upset the Broncos in Week 16 and it's why I think this spread against the Bills is out of hand.

Entering Week 17, the Patriots are 17th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.1) and 11th in Net Yards per Play over their last 11 games. Their run defense specifically is objectively the best in the NFL, leading the league in opponent yards per carry, opponent rush EPA, and opponent success rate.

That's not the makeup of a team that should be a double-digit underdog to the Bills, who constantly play down to their competition. We should also note the Patriots are eighth in third-down defense and seventh in red zone defense, which is going to make it tough for the Bills to cover a spread this big.

Not only did the Patriots beat them in their meeting earlier this season, but they gained 6.6 yards per play compared to just 5.1 yards per play by the Bills.

All of that is enough for me to back Patriots to cover in this AFC East showdown.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

This Bengals team does not much up well with the Chiefs. Despite Kansas City looking abysmal lately, now is the time to buy low on them with the Chiefs holding a significant stylistic advantage in this one.

First of all, let's start with the Bengals defense, which continues to bet one of the worst in the NFL. Entering Week 1, the Bengals rank 29th in opponent EPA per play, 31st in opponent success rate, and dead last in opponent yards per play, allowing an average of 6.1 yards per snap.Even more importantly, they're 28th in opponent dropback EPA and 31st in opponent dropback success rate, meaning Patrick Mahomes is going to have one of the easiest matchups hes had all season.

Let's also take a look at the Bengals offense. Jake Browning has made their pass offense look great at time, but the key to beat the Chiefs is running the football successfully and that's not something the Bengals do well.

The Bengals average just 3.9 yards per carry this season which ranks 25th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chiefs secondary is a top 10 unit by virtually every metric.

Styles make fights, my friends, and the Chiefs have the advantage in this one. I'll lay the points with Kansas City.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!