NFL Best Bets for Week 4 (Fade Zach Wilson in Season Debut, Broncos Defense Predicted to Prevail Again)

The BetSided team came through with a 3-2 Week in our Week 3 NFL Best Bets, and we’re looking to ride that momentum into an interesting Week 4. 

The AFC West is certainly a theme in this week’s picks, with Donnavan Smoot sharing his play on the Kansas City Chiefs-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup while Peter Dewey and Joe Summers have plays in the Las Vegas Raiders-Denver Broncos showdown. 

Plus, Ben Heisler gives his take on the Zach Wilson-Mitch Trubisky matchup in Pittsburgh on Sunday. 

Let’s dive into this week’s picks!

NFL Best Bets for Week 4

• Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. New York Jets
• Denver Broncos +2.5 at Las Vegas Raiders
• Denver Broncos-Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 45.5

Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The fact that this line has moved towards the Buccaneers is surprising. Kansas City, despite a loss, played a decent game against the Colts. They had several miscues on special teams and a tipped ball on the last play that cost them the game. 

Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled over the last two weeks, making them completely untrustworthy. With Patrick Mahomes actually having protection, the Buccaneers defense won’t be as dominant as it was in Super Bowl 51. Trust Mahomes to outscore Brady and win big on Sunday Night. – Donnavan Smoot

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 vs. New York Jets

Initially, my favorite bet of the week is on the Ravens to upset the Buffalo Bills, but since I got them at +3.5 and they’re now down to +2.5, I think there’s a better value bet on the board with the Steelers at home vs. the Jets.

The line was sitting at Steelers -3.5 until the news came out that Zach Wilson is in. Once that came out, the line moved back towards the Jets, and to be perfectly honest, I’m not sure that Wilson right now is a half-point better than Joe Flacco. Maybe over the course of the season he’ll be several points better, but this feels like an overactive move.

Mike Tomlin always trends towards the right side of history, and while I know plenty of bettors will point out that his numbers came with Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback, I’ll still feel comfortable backing one of the most consistent coaches in the NFL vs. a bad team. Tomlin, via Evan Abrams, is 9-4-1 against-the-spread over the past five seasons after a full week-plus of rest, and are 6-1 both straight up and ATS coming off a loss with longer rest.

I don’t trust the Jets, and while the Steelers aren’t great, this number and this spot is an excellent one for them. – Ben Heisler

Denver Broncos +2.5 at Las Vegas Raiders

It’s been a fun few weeks making fun of Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett, but at least the Broncos are still winning games. The defense is legit, and the offense is bound to stop being awful sooner than later. 

The team that really deserves our scorn is Las Vegas. Derek Carr might need to start a new prayer circle, because the Raiders keep inventing ways to lose games they should win. 

In their last dozen games as a favorite, the Raiders are 1-11 against the spread (ATS). No, seriously - that’s not a typo. 

Denver ranks second in opponent points per game (12.0) and third in opponent yards per game (251.3). If Russ ever figures things out, the Broncos are absolutely still a Super Bowl contender on the strength of that defensive unit. 

At the least, we cannot trust Carr and the Raiders under any circumstances. This line might be a trap, but I believe in Russ to summon his inner Indiana Jones and dodge that trap in glorious fashion. - Joe Summers

Denver Broncos-Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 45.5

I have a couple of plays on this game in Week 4, as I took Denver as my upset pick to win this week, but I also love the UNDER in this AFC West division matchup. 

There’s a very real chance that Denver has the best defense in the NFL, ranking second in points allowed, third in total yards allowed and sixth in opponent yards per play. 

The impressive part is Denver has done most of this without All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, which could make the team even more dangerous down the stretch of the 2022 season. 

Still, the Broncos’ offense has scored the second fewest points in the league, almost negating the great play of the defense. Does this remind you of another Broncos season? Maybe… 2015? 

I digress. 

The Raiders haven’t been able to get out of their own way so far this season, watching turnovers (five in three games) cost them in multiple games. 

I do believe Vegas deserves to be favored at home since its offense has been so much better than Denver’s, but at the end of the day I see this as a low-scoring division battle. Unless Russell Wilson figures things out, the Broncos are likely going to slog their way into the teens, but rely on their defense to keep this close.  -- Peter Dewey