NFL Week 4 Upset Picks (Lamar Jackson Beats Bills, Sell High on Eagles Lead This Week’s Predictions)

You want upset picks? Well, we have them, and the BetSided team is HOT so far to start the NFL season. 

We went 3-3 in last week’s picks, bringing our season record to 8-6 and moving us to +9.13 units on the season. The most impressive picks from last week’s group? Reed Wallach bet on the Indianapolis Colts to upset the Kansas City Chiefs.  

What do you say we keep this going for Week 4?

The BetSided team has a plethora of upset picks once again this week, including a play for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals. 

Let’s pick some upsets!

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 4 of 2022 Season

Miami Dolphins (+166) at Cincinnati Bengals

The story of the year so far is that the Miami Dolphins are 3-0. The story after Thursday Night Football is that they’ll be 4-0. Miami’s speed on the outside is ridiculous, and I think that is going to be the difference in the game. 

Tyreek Hill has already put Eli Apple on notice that he will be ready, and I’m genuinely scared for Apple.

Cincinnati can’t protect Joe Burrow at all, and will have trouble keeping him upright. The Bengals got a win against the Jets last week, but their regression is real. – Donnavan Smoot

New York Jets (+150) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Maybe Zach Wilson isn't very good, but he increases the range of outcomes for the New York Jets, who have been able to move the ball this season with Joe Flacco under center. The Jets outgained the Baltimore Ravens by over 100 in Week 1, rallied to beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and nearly put up the same yardage output as the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3.

The team has explosive skill positions and players and Wilson gives them a higher ceiling, even if you could argue he gives Gang Green a lower floor.

Meanwhile, Mitchell Trubisky's struggles continued last week as fans clamor for Kenny Pickett to take over in the Steel City. T.J. Watt is out, and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense has struggled to move the ball.

Let's see what the Jets can do with Wilson. – Reed Wallach

Denver Broncos (+116) at Las Vegas Raiders

Want a crazy stat in this game? 

The Las Vegas Raiders are just 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 games as favorites, and they are short favorites against Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos on Sunday. 

There’s a very real chance that Denver has the best defense in the NFL, ranking second in points allowed, third in total yards allowed and sixth in opponent yards per play. 

The impressive part is Denver has done most of this without All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, but the issue has been Denver’s offense, which has generated the second fewest points in the NFL through the first three weeks. 

Still, the Broncos are 2-1!

There has to be some positive regression coming from Nathaniel Hackett’s team on the offensive side of the ball after punting 10 times against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3. The Raiders don’t have nearly as good a defense as San Fran, and they blew a 20-point lead to Arizona earlier this season. 

If the Broncos can establish the run the way the Tennessee Titans did against Vegas last week, I think they are very live to win this game. – Peter Dewey

Jacksonville Jaguars (+235) at Philadelphia Eagles

If you're like me and like to "sell high" on some teams, and "buy low" on others, then there's no team in the world that's in a better sell high spot this weekend than the Philadelphia Eagles. 

People are crowning them NFC champions after beating the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Washington Commanders through the first three weeks. Those are three non-playoff teams, who combined for an 18-32 record in 2021. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Jacksonville isn't exactly a strong opponent for them either, but there are a few things they do really well that makes me like them on Sunday. First of all, they protect the quarterback better than any other team. They allow a sack on just 1.77% of Trevor Lawrence drop backs. If they give him time to throw, he's going to find open receivers downfield.

I think the Jaguars keep their hot streak alive, and upset the darlings of the NFL. – Iain MacMillan

Baltimore Ravens (+146) vs. Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills’ inability to put Miami away on the road gave off an eerie feeling of familiarity that I just couldn’t place. Fortunately, my buddy Nick Wright over at FOX Sports was there to help me place it.

For a team as dominant and as highly ranked as the Bills, their inability to close out games should absolutely be concerning. Now, they head on the road for their second straight road game vs. a Ravens team with a quarterback playing absolutely electric in Lamar Jackson. If we’re being honest, perhaps the Ravens are closer to a pick ’em here if not for a brutal collapse in Week 2 vs. the 3-0 Miami Dolphins.

To cross-compare sports for a second, Buffalo reminds me of this year’s L.A. Dodgers. Stacked from top-to-bottom talent-wise with the best run differential in baseball, but a team that if you would always bet to cover rather than take on the moneyline.

The spread has crept down to a 3-point advantage for Buffalo. I believe the value is now on the Ravens as a home dog to upset the Bills, and judging by their inability to get the job done in close games, I give the advantage to Baltimore here. — Ben Heisler

Arizona Cardinals (+105) at Carolina Panthers

We cashed big on Arizona against the Las Vegas Raiders two weeks ago and I'm going right back to the well.

The little-known best betting trend in the NFL is backing the Arizona Cardinals as road underdogs. They've won seven straight in this spot, while the Carolina Panthers are 1-9 outright in their last 10 games as home favorites.

That's not a typo - Carolina has ONE WIN in its last 10 games as a home favorite. Matt Rhule ran this franchise into the ground, and I'm thrilled to sell high after the Panthers beat an injury-riddled New Orleans Saints squad.

Kyler Murray is still that dude, and the Cardinals should be favored here. Sure, they got trucked by last year's Super Bowl champions (the Los Angeles Rams) as well as Patrick Mahomes. So what? Trust the trends and feel comfortable backing Arizona to win an eighth straight as a road underdog. – Joe Summers