Every week in the NFL season, the BetSided editors come together to share their favorite NFL bet and give you an opportunity to tail or fade them.
So far this season, we are 12-14-1 on our picks, so we’re hoping for a solid performance in Week 7 to get back on track:
NFL Best Bets for Week 7
- Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New York Giants
- Seattle Seahawks +5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Las Vegas Raiders -7 vs. Houston Texans
- New York Giants-Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 42.5
- Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. New York Giants
Our big trap game of the week between the Pros and Joes takes place in Duval County as the 5-1 underdog Giants head to Jacksonville to face a 2-4 Jaguars team that’s lost three straight as a field goal favorite.
Once the line opened at 2, and immediately moved to 2.5, I knew the sharps would get it to 3. And even at the field goal, I still think this is the right side for Jacksonville.
I also don’t like the matchup for the Giants. Jacksonville is elite at stopping the run, ranked 9th in the NFL in Football Outsider’s Rush DVOA and fifth in unadjusted Rush DVOA. That should neutralize both Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones’ ability to escape and use their legs to their advantage.
If Matt Ryan doesn’t heave up a prayer to Alec Pierce to stun the Jaguars in Indianapolis last week, we’re likely looking at Jacksonville at a higher number. Instead, we’ll back the team that’s set to be on the right side of positive regression to the mean.
Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!
Seattle Seahawks +5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Seahawks are my upset pick of the week, but I’ll gladly be conservative and take them with the points.
Seattle has a good running back in Kenneth Walker III, which sets up perfectly against the Chargers. Los Angeles allows the second-most yards per carry in the league – giving Seattle an advantage on the ground. With Geno Smith playing at a high level and the Chargers grinding out a win for three straight weeks, the Seahawks are in a perfect position to burst their bubble.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.
Las Vegas Raiders -7 vs. Houston Texans
Don't be fooled by their record. The Raiders are a much better team than 1-4, and they'll prove it in Week 7 against the Texans.
The Raiders offense ranks ninth in the NFL in yards per play, averaging 5.8 yards per snap. Over the past number of years, they were missing an effective running game, but now the Raiders rank fifth in the NFL in yards per carry.
That running attack is going to be bad news for a Houston team that ranks 29th in opponent yards per rush, giving up 5.1 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Houston offense is amongst the worst in the NFL. They rank 26th in yards per play, 31st in third down conversion percentage, and 24th in points per play.
There are few bright spots on this Houston team, and I expect them to be near the bottom of the league by the time the season concludes. I'll back the Raiders to win and cover on Sunday.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.
New York Giants-Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 42.5
Death, taxes, and betting the under in Giants games. It's a remarkable 12-4 in New York's last 16 contests and I expect that trend to continue this week. WInk Martindale is one of the league's best defensive coordinators - his schemes should frustrate Trevor Lawrence while the Jaguars' stellar defense limits Daniel Jones.
New York is 22nd in yards per play (5.1), while Jacksonville is ninth in opponent yards per play (5.2). I don't see the Giants scoring much against a Jaguars defense that also ranks ninth in opponent points per game (19.0). The Giants are suffocating on defense too, ranking seventh in opponent points per game (18.8).
Both teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL in pace, so this should be a slow, methodical game.
As a cherry on top, betting trends on Jacksonville's side support an under bet too. It's 7-1 in the Jaguars' last eight home games, including hitting in three straight. Roll with the under and enjoy every poor red zone possession.
Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Atlanta Falcons are a bit underrated coming into this matchup, especially for a team that is a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season.
The Falcons just dominated a solid San Francisco 49ers team, and now they face a Bengals team that is 3-3, but has underperformed in 2022.
Cincy ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play on offense, which is supposed to be the team’s calling card. The Falcons are 14th in that category, although they rank 27th in opponent yards per play on defense.
Cincy is just 5-6 against the spread as a home favorite under Zac Taylor, and I don’t see the Bengals running away with this game, given that they’ve played four games that have been decided by four or fewer points.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.