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NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 5 (Target Green Bay, New Orleans)

Looking at the three best ATS pick to make in the NFL for Week 5.

By Shelby Dermer

Sep 29, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) drops back to pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Sep 29, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) drops back to pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the fourth quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images
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The calendar has flipped to October and the cream is starting to rise in the NFL. We’ve already gone over some prop bets to consider for this week’s slate and now we’ll rundown three teams to bet on against the spread. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Best Spread Picks for Week 5 

  • Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Washington Commanders
  • Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams 
  • New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Washington Commanders

This is the ultimate buy-low, sell-high spot when it comes to this week’s NFL slate. The Washington Commanders may have found their franchise quarterback in rookie Jayden Daniels, who is lighting the NFL world on fire over the last two weeks. 

The Browns, meanwhile, are a shell of the team that last year ran the table with a backup quarterback to a playoff spot after losing to a shorthanded Raiders team in Week 4. 

Time to pump the brakes. Daniels has been stellar four games into his rookie season, but he did beat up on two of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL (Cincinnati, Arizona) over the last two weeks. For all of their troubles, the Browns are still able to rush the passer well (No. 3 in pass rush win rate) and stop the run (No. 2 in run stop win rate). 

Cleveland’s offense has been putrid through four weeks, but will face a Washington that is 27th in yards allowed and in the bottom half of the league against both the run and pass. 

This is just a situational spot where the betting world is in awe of what the Commanders are doing and now they’ll have to win by margin after back-to-back outright victories as underdogs. 

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Los Angeles Rams 

It seemed like no quarterback could figure out the Minnesota Vikings’ defense until Jordan Love returned from an injury to throw for 389 yards and four touchdowns in Week 4. Yes, three interceptions was a big reason why Green Bay’s valiant comeback effort came up short, but there’s still something to be said with how explosive this offense has been in the two weeks Love has been under center. 

This week, the Packers get to face an LA Rams’ defense that is below average across the board and struggling with injuries. The Rams rank 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 385.3 yards per game and teams have been able to beat them through the air and on the ground. Green Bay has been able to do both, airing it out when Love is healthy and pounding the rock in its two victories with Malik Willis under center. 

The Rams have allowed the most explosive plays in the NFL while the Packers lead the league offensively in that category. It seems like a match made in heaven for Green Bay to get right and move over .500. Yes, you’re always hesitant to back road favorites, but it’s not like SoFi Stadium offers much of a home-field advantage as you can expect Green Bay fans to travel well for this matchup. 

New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City continues to find ways to win although every game this season has come down to the last play. This line seems like it could’ve been in the 4-4.5 point range if not for some heavy variance in Atlanta last week.

The Saints did not allow an offensive touchdown in its 26-24 loss to the Falcons. A muffed punt and a tipped pick-six provided the majority of the scoring for Atlanta, which marched down the field for a game-winning field goal in a drive fueled by a 30-yard Saints’ penalty. 

Many believe the bloom is off the Saints’ rose after they began the year 2-0 with a pair of dominating victories with a high-flying offense. Not so fast. Kansas City’s defense is always going to be tricky with Steve Spagnuolo calling the shots over there, but the Chiefs have struggled to rush the passer this season and the Saints are keeping Derek Carr comfortable in the pocket, allowing just one sack in all four contests. 

We’re also getting a Kansas City offense that has not been up to standard and will be without its biggest weapon. Rashee Rice might have escaped an ACL tear based off multiple reports, but he won’t be suiting up on Monday night. Both of these offenses rank in the top-10 in terms of DVOA, but New Orleans has a full complement of healthy weapons while Kansas City will have to shuffle the deck and spread out the workload between a slew of underwhelming options. 

The Chiefs are 4-0 and continue to find ways to win despite pedestrian numbers across the board. The Saints have lost their last two games by a combined five points. It looks like we’re getting New Orleans at a discount after those back-to-back losses. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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