NFL Division Odds: Examining Biggest Movement in Odds Since Start of Free Agency

The NFL division odds have seen some major shakeup since the start of free agency last week.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins. / Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
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We're one week through NFL free agency, and there have been some major moves that have shook the landscape of the NFL.

While I discussed some of the moves and how they altered Super Bowl odds last week, the division odds are actually where we can truly see the movement. Some teams may not be able to win a Super Bowl even if they make a big signing, but oddsmakers have tweaked the division odds over the last week to reflect the teams making signings/trades that are going to help or hurt the roster.

The biggest moves have come in on the Atlanta Falcons (who added Kirk Cousins) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (who added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields), but does that make those teams worthy of a wager?

It may not, but regardless we can use the odds to see how each division stacks up at this point in the offseason.

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AFC East Division Odds

There hasn't been a ton of movement in the AFC East, even with the Miami Dolphins moving on from several key pieces on their defense.

The New York Jets may be a value bet here after the team made moves to bolster the offensive line, adding Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses.

AFC North Division Odds

The Steelers' odds to win the division have increased, even though the team is still in last. Pittsburgh was +1200 to win the AFC North prior to the offseason, but that number has dropped to +950 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Baltimore Ravens, who added running back Derrick Henry, remain the favorite in the division.

AFC South Division Odds

After opening with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars neck and neck in the odds, Houston has built out a little bit of a cushion.

Why?

Well, Jacksonville lost receiver Calvin Ridley in free agency, and the Texans fixed their running back room by adding Joe Mixon in a trade with the Cincinnati Bengals. CJ Stroud and company will look to make it two straight division titles in 2024.

AFC West Division Odds

The AFC West hasn't seen much change with the Kansas City Chiefs heavily favored the Los Angeles Chargers getting rid of all of Justin Herbert's weapons. Los Angeles let Austin Ekeler walk in free agency, traded Keenan Allen to Chicago and released Mike Williams.

The Chiefs -- if healthy -- should run away with the AFC West after bringing back Chris Jones and adding speedy wideout Marquise Brown.

NFC East Division Odds

After the Philadelphia Eagles jumped to favorites in the NFC East following the signing of Saquon Barkley, the odds have settled, with Dallas now favored to repeat as division champs.

That being said, it's important to note that nobody has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since the Eagles from 2001 through 2004.

NFC North Division Odds

The Chicago Bears are now the clear No. 3 in the odds to win the NFC North following moves for D'Andre Swift and Keenan Allen.

The team also traded away Justin Fields, a sign that Caleb Williams will head to Chicago with the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Minnesota, who lost Kirk Cousins to Atlanta, has fallen back to No. 4 in the division odds.

NFC South Division Odds

The signing of Cousins has moved the Atlanta Falcons to odds-on favorites to win the NFC South.

Tampa Bay, who brought back Lavonte Davis, Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, won the division last season, but oddsmakers seem to thinks Cousins is the missing piece in Atlanta.

NFC West Division Odds

Aaron Donald's retirement was a blow to the Los Angeles Rams' odds to win the NFC West, making the San Francisco 49ers massive favorites to take the division.

Given the outlook for L.A., Seattle and Arizona, there may not be a "value" bet to make the in the NFC West at this point in the offseason.


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.