How Biggest Offseason Moves Have Altered NFL Futures Markets
By Peter Dewey
The NFL offseason has gotten off a crazy start, with several key players moving teams and some contenders getting even richer ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.
This week, I broke down the biggest winners and losers in the Super Bowl odds, but those aren’t the only futures that have been altered by moves this offseason. Some of the biggest – and most telling – movement has come in the division odds, and it’s a good way for bettors and NFL fans to see how teams are truly viewed at this point in the offseason.
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Let’s take a look at some of the biggest offseason moves and how they altered the futures market:
Kirk Cousins Signs with Atlanta Falcons
Cousins is the biggest domino to move this offseason, as the quarterback has been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL, throwing for at least 25 scores in eight straight seasons before he tore his Achilles last season.
Atlanta is immediately viewed as a threat in the NFC in the latest odds – here’s how:
Falcons Super Bowl Odds
Following the Cousins’ signing, the Falcons jumped to +3000 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel Sportsbook. The team is as low as +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook, in line with the Houston Texans and New York Jets.
Falcons NFC South Odds
This is where the true move was made. Atlanta is now -130 to win the NFC South – the clear favorite – even though the team was plus money to win the division before adding Cousins.
Tampa Bay won the NFC South with a 9-8 record last season, so this could be an easy division for Cousins and the Falcons to capture in 2024.
Vikings Super Bowl Odds
The other part of this signing was the fall off in the Minnesota Vikings’ Super Bowl odds.
It appears oddsmakers expected Cousins to return to Minnesota in free agency, as the team dropped from +4500 to +7500 in the odds to win the Super Bowl. Even though the Vikings added Sam Darnold, they are still behind many other teams in the NFC at quarterback.
Brian Burns Traded to New York Giants
The Carolina Panthers decided to move on from star pass rusher Brian Burns – netting a few draft picks from the New York Giants – on Monday.
The move hurts the Carolina defense, which also lost Donte Jackson, Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn this offseason, but did it move the Giants’ odds?
Giants Super Bowl Odds
New York did lose Saquon Barkley this offseason, a move we’ll get into, but the Giants saw their Super Bowl odds at FanDuel jump from +15000 to +10000 following their offseason moves – led by Burns.
Panthers Super Bowl Odds
Carolina was already dead last in the odds to win the Super Bowl, but the team has moved from +25000 to +30000 with the departure of several key defenders.
Saquon Barkley Signs with Philadelphia Eagles
I said we’d mention Barkley, as he signed with the division rival Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, replacing D’Andre Swift (signed with Chicago) in the backfield.
Eagles Super Bowl Odds
The Eagles’ Super Bowl odds jumped slightly, from +1700 to +1600, and the team made more moves than just Barkley. Philly bolstered the defense as well, adding safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and pass rusher Bryce Huff.
Eagles NFC East Odds
With Philly making moves and the Dallas Cowboys standing pat – and losing Tony Pollard – Philly is now the favorite to win the NFC East in 2024.
Russell Wilson Signs with Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers made a low-risk, high-reward move by adding Russell Wilson on a one-year deal after he was released by the Denver Broncos.
Steelers Super Bowl Odds
Wilson doesn’t move the needle after his struggles in the last two seasons in Denver. He’ll compete with Kenny Pickett for the starting job in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers are still +7500 to win the Super Bowl.
Derrick Henry Signs with Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens have seen some defensive players poached, but they added a star running back in Derrick Henry on a two-year deal.
Ravens Super Bowl Odds
Baltimore is one of three teams with odds to win the Super Bowl shorter than +1000. At _900, Baltimore is behind just Kansas City and San Francisco.
Henry and Lamar Jackson in the same backfield should be a nightmare for opposing defenses.
Chris Jones Re-Signs with Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City kept one piece of its elite defense for the long haul, signing Chris Jones to a five-year deal. The team also franchise tagged cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who could end up remaining with the team.
Chiefs Super Bowl Odds
Kansas City entered the offseason second in the Super Bowl odds, moving to +650 after bringing back Jones. The Chiefs are going to be one of the favorites regardless because of Patrick Mahomes, but let’s not forget that they had the No. 2 defense in the NFL in 2023.
Gardner Minshew Signs with Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders will have a quarterback competition this offseason, as the team added veteran Garnder Minshew in free agency, poaching him from the Indianapolis Colts.
Raiders Super Bowl Odds
There was no movement in the Raiders’ Super Bowl odds after this move.
Oddsmakers aren’t buying the Minshew move – probably because he will compete with Aidan O’Connell for the starting job in Las Vegas.
Still, it’s worth noting how close the Colts were to a playoff spot last season with Minshew leading the way for most of the season.
Josh Jacobs Signs with Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers ended the Aaron Jones era (he signed with Minnesota after being released), adding former Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs this offseason in free agency.
Packers Super Bowl Odds
While DraftKings moved the Packers to +1800 to win the Super Bowl, ahead of the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans, FanDuel has not changed the team’s odds.
Time will tell if Jacobs is a true upgrade over the AJ Dillon-Aaron Jones duo.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.