Biggest Winners and Losers in Super Bowl Odds Following Opening Days of NFL Free Agency

Breaking down the teams that saw their Super Bowl odds move the most in the opening days of NFL free agency.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) warms up.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) warms up. / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The opening days of NFL free agency have been WILD, with Kirk Cousins finding a new home in Atlanta, Brian Burns being traded to the New York Giants and Saquon Barkley signing with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Those obviously aren't the only moves, but every signing and trade is under the microscope in Vegas as oddsmakers attempt to set the Super Bowl odds for next season. At the beginning of the legal tampering period, we took a look at the odds, but there has been some major shifts since then.

Sure, the NFL season is months away, but there's no doubt that some of the true contenders are coming into form this offseason. The NFL draft could also sway the odds, but proven commodities switching teams in free agency will almost always have a bigger impact in the futures market.

Here's a look at some of the biggest winners -- and losers -- in the Super Bowl odds through the opening days of free agency:

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Super Bowl 2025 Odds for Every NFL Team

Biggest Winners in Super Bowl 59 Odds Movement

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are the biggest winners in the early days of free agency, going from +4000 to +3000 in the Super Bowl odds after they landed Cousins with a four-year deal.

This is a massive move for Atlanta, a team that nearly made the playoffs last season despite terrible quarterback play from both Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.

Now, the Falcons have one of the league's better quarterbacks to pair with their impressive trio of skill players in Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson -- all who were top-10 picks in their respective drafts.

Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles, but if he can find his form from previous seasons, Atlanta is going to be dangerous. The four-time Pro Bowler has thrown for at least 25 touchdowns in eight of his last nine seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia made a major move to upgrade its running game, adding Saquon Barkley on a three-year deal. The team also added pass rusher Bryce Huff and brought back Brandon Graham.

The Eagles jumped from +1700 to +1600 -- small but notable move -- following those moves. If the team can add to its secondary, which struggled last season, the Eagles could be a tough team to beat in 2024.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay did most of its work before the legal tampering period opened, re-signing Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield to keep its key offensive players intact. The team's Super Bowl odds shifted from +7500 to +5500 over the last few days, and it could be since the squad has a proven offense -- and quarterback situation.

On defense, the Bucs retained veteran linebacker Lavonte David, a big move since the team lost Shaq Barrett to the Miami Dolphins.

The Bucs also traded corner Carlton Davis, so there could be more moves coming in Tampa.

Biggest Losers in Super Bowl 59 Odds Movement

Minnesota Vikings

This is tough for Minnesota, who dropped from +4500 to +7500 after Cousins signed with Atlanta.

However, the team has made some shrewd moves, adding linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel, Jonathan Greenard and Blake Cashman to bolster its front seven. The team also fixed its running back issues, adding former Green Bay Packers star Aaron Jones on a one-year deal.

Still, these odds won't go up until the team gets a proven option -- or a rookie -- at quarterback. Sam Darnold isn't cutting it for oddsmakers.

Carolina Panthers

What in the world are the Carolina Panthers doing?

The team already had the worst odds to win the Super Bowl (+25000) before free agency opened, and now they're at +30000.

Carolina traded its best defender -- Burns -- to the New York Giants, and the team also let Frankie Luvu walk to the Washington Commanders.

While the Panthers did get Bryce Young a weapon by trading with the Pittsburgh Steelers for Diontae Johnson, it gave up cornerback Donte Jackson in the process.

The team also added offensive lineman Robert Hunt, but there needs to be more down for Carolina to climb out of the basement of the NFL in 2024.

Chicago Bears

Chicago did add running back D'Andre Swift, but the quarterback carousel has not gone in the team's favor to move Justin Fields.

Cousins landed in Atlanta, Gardner Minshew signed with the Las Vegas Raiders and Darnold is signing with the Vikings. So, the Bears may not get much for Fields, which hurts their chances to continue building this roster around presumable No. 1 pick Caleb Williams.

The Bears' odds went from +4000 to +5000 over the last two days.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.