The curse of always being right, as I am, is that it makes the Fraud Rankings tough to make this late in the season because all the teams I've claimed to be fraudulent have turned out to be exactly that. The issue is that once everyone is calling a team frauds, they are by definition no longer frauds.
So, I have to change up the list a little bit because the team I've been calling the biggest frauds in the NFL, the Eagles, are now being called that by every talking head in sports media. Welcome to the party, friends. You're about two months late.
So, with them dropping down the list, the Jacksonville Jaguars take over the most fraudulent team in the NFL. Let's dive into the top five.
The five teams on last week's edition went 1-4 on Sunday. If you want to follow the same strategy and bet against the five teams I have listed below, be sure to place your bets over at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager!
Most Overrated Teams in the NFL
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 4)
I don't think there are many people that are still taking this team seriously, so there's a chance they fall off this last next week, but for the time being they do deserve a spot on the list due to how different their record is compared to their metrics.
They're 7-6 and in the middle of the playoff hunt, but yet are 24th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play. They're near the bottom of the NFL in almost metric and we shouldn't take this team seriously.
4) Philadelphia Eagles (Last Week: 1)
When looking at record vs. metrics, the Eagles are still the most fraudulent team in the NFL, but now that every talking head has been saying the same thing, they've fallen on my life. If every single person calls a team a fraud, they are inherently, no longer a fraud. Credit to me for being the first one to call them that back when it wasn't cool to do so and people called me insane for doing it.
Turns out I was right. The Eagles offense has gone from good to average and their defense has gone from average to bad. One of the most damning stats is they're dead last in red zone defense, allowing teams to convert 48.07% of third downs against them. They need to improve in a big way if they want to make a run in the playoffs.
3) Cleveland Browns (Last Week: Not Ranked)
There's no denying the Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but let's pump the brakes on Joe Flacco and this offense. Their offensive line is a skeleton of itself with numerous injuries at several positions. Do you just 87-year old Joe Flacco behind a banged up offensive line? I certainly don't.
Despite being firmly in a playoff spot for the time being at 8-5, I wouldn't be shocked if they lose a few games in a row and all of a sudden are on the outside of the postseason looking in.
2) Denver Broncos (Last Week: 2)
The Denver Broncos are, by a lot of metrics, a bottom five team in the NFL but yet are alive in the hunt for not only a playoff spot, but for the AFC West title. Heading into Week 15, they're 29th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -0.8.
They've managed to win games by forcing turnovers and preventing turning the ball over themselves. That isn't a sustainable way to win games and they're long overdue for some major regression and I think the Lions will beat up on them on Saturday night.
1) Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: 3)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are not a good football team. I don't care that they're winning their division. They're 22nd in Net Yards per Play at -0.4 and 27th in Net Yards per Play at -0.7 over their last three games. They're also terrible at home, sporting the worst Net Yards per Play mark of -1.4 amongst all teams at home.
They're going to stumble down the stretch and a playoff run is out of the question for them, even if they host a game in the opening round. They're going to be a prime fade candidate in the wild card round.