NFL Fraud Power Rankings Week 4 (Sell High on Buffalo Bills)

Ranking the top five most overrated teams in the NFL heading into Week 4 of the NFL season

Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (43) celebrates with
Sep 24, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard (43) celebrates with / Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

People thought I was crazy last week when I called the Dallas Cowboys overrated and featured them No. 3 on my fraudulent power rankings.

Then what happened? Dallas lost to the Arizona Cardinals as 12.5-point favorites. Don't ever discount the fraud rankings ever again. This week, it's the Bills who are making a surprise appearance on the list.

Before I jump into the latest fraud rankings, I'd recommend signing up for a betting account at FanDuel Sportsbook. For a limited time, new users will receive $200 in bonus bets when they place a $5 bet on any game! Just click the link below to sign up for an account to take advantage of this offer. It's really that easy!

Most Fraudulent Teams in the NFL

5) Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: Not Ranked)

The Cincinnati Bengals finally got their first win of the season, does that mean they're back? Absolutely not. This team should have plenty more concerns than just Joe Burrow's injury. Only the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears rank worse in Net Yards per Play heading into Week 4.

It might be time we start considering the Bengals just not being as good of a team as we thought heading into this season.

4) Buffalo Bills (Last Week: Not Ranked)

You might be surprised to see the Bills on this list after coming off wins of 38-10 against the Raiders and 37-3 against the Commanders. With that being said, we need to look deeper into teams than just the final score. In terms of yards per play, they were significantly outgained by the Jets in Week 1, 5.5 to 4.9, and then were once again outgained by the Raiders in Week 2 by a mark of 6.2-6.1.

To be fair, their EPA numbers still look good, but they're also converting 9.6% more third down conversions than expected.

Listen, they're still only ranked No. 4 on this list. All I'm saying is don't blindly bet them to cover spreads as favorites moving forward based solely on the box scores of the past couple weeks. In fact, it might be time to bet against them.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars (Last Week: Not Ranked)

Hand up. I was high on the Jacksonville Jaguars heading into this season as plenty of other people were as well. Their offense has been bad, despite adding Calvin Ridley to the mix, and they now rank 20th in net yards per play at -0.5 through three weeks.

That's pretty bad when you consider two of their first three games were against the Colts and Texans. We expected a lot more from the defending AFC South champions.

The Jaguars might just be frauds and if they continue this level of play, they're going to go from "maybe a fraud" to "just plain bad".

2) Seattle Seahawks (Last Week: 4)

The Seattle Seahawks are 2-1 but I'm still not bought in that this team is as good as their results were last season. Their defense has been terrible, even allowing the lowly Panthers to score 27 points on them. They give up an average of 5.6 yards per play on defense this season. Only the Bears, Chargers, and Broncos rank worse.

Don't buy Seahawks stock just quite yet. They're in deep trouble any time they play a competent offense.

1) Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: 3)

The Cowboys aren't Super Bowl contenders. Yes, they blew the Giants and Jets out of the water in Week 1 and Week 2, but the majority of those points came from offensive and special teams blunders from their opponents.

The Cowboys are just 12th in the NFL in net yards per play at +0.2 while ranking 18th in offensive yards per play at 5.0. Let's also consider these subpar metrics come after playing the Giants, Jets, and Cardinals. They have yet to play a good team and when they do, they'll be exposed.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!