Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season was one of the best of the season in my weekly against the spread picks, as I tallied a 10-4 record to push us well over .500 on the season.
The 4 p.m. window and primetime games were extra kind to us – going 6-0 in those matchups.
Now, we have a 14-game slate in Week 11 that features some marquee matchups in primetime with the Baltimore Ravens taking on the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday and a Super Bowl 57 rematch on Monday night.
So, why not make a spread pick for each game? Here’s where our record stands this season:
- Week 10 Record: 10-4
- Season Record: 77-70-1
For more Week 11 picks, check out our NFL betting analyst Iain MacMillan’s best bet for every game on the slate here!
Whether you decide to tail or fade these spread picks, you can come out a winner at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 11.
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Here is who I think will cover the spread in every game in Week 11:
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Spread Pick
- Pick: Bengals +4
With this spread moving in Baltimore’s direction, I’m going to hop on the Bengals on a short week.
Since the 2021 season, Cincinnati is an impressive 10-2 against the spread as road underdogs, and with the spread being at Ravens -4, it allows us to cover with Cincy at a field goal difference.
Even with Tee Higgins likely out, I trust the Bengals here with their playoff hopes partially riding on this matchup.
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders Patriots Spread Pick
- Pick: Commanders -9.5
The New York Giants have been outscored by a combined 56 points in their last two games and they are just 2-7-1 against the spread this season.
This is a lot of points to lay with a Washington team that lost to New York earlier this season, but I think the Commanders can dominate offensively against a Giants team that is 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Spread Pick
- Pick: Steelers +4
Since Mike Tomlin took over for the Steelers in 2007, the team has the third best ATS record as road underdogs in the NFL at 38-25-2.
Pittsburgh – despite not outgaining a single opponent this season – is 6-3 and already upset the Browns earlier in the campaign. I’ll roll with the Steelers to keep this game close on Sunday.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans Spread Pick
- Pick: Cardinals +4
CJ Stroud mania is insane right now, but I think the Cardinals can cover in this matchup now that Kyler Murray is back under center. On the season, Arizona is 5-5 against the spread, and it’s worth noting that Houston has not covered as a favorite (0-3 ATS) this season.
Stroud has been lights out, but this could be a little bit of a sell-high spot on Houston, even if it does end up winning the game.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Spread Pick
- Pick: Jaguars -6.5
I don’t love laying this many points with Jacksonville after its atrocious performance in Week 10, but the team should be able to handle the Titans.
Will Levis and company scored just six points against a below-average Tampa Bay defense last week, and Jacksonville – for what it’s worth – has been elite against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
I like the Jags to get back on track at home.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Spread Pick
- Pick: Raiders +12.5
This is a lot of points to lay with any team – even the high-powered Miami offense.
The Raiders have won back-to-back games under Antonio Pierce, and we’ve seen the Dolphins (0-3 straight up) struggle against teams that are .500 or better this season.
I don’t think Vegas can pull off the upset, but the team is getting nearly two touchdowns here. I think it can hang around on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Spread Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -10.5
Dallas has beaten up on bad teams all season long, and the Panthers are one of the worst squads to bet on this season, going 1-6-2 against the spread.
Even at home, I don’t have a ton of faith in this offense against a Dallas defense that can really get to the quarterback and force turnovers (14 turnovers forced in nine games).
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Spread Pick
- Pick: Bears +9
Justin Fields is expected to return for the Bears, and that brings a boost to the team’s offense. Chicago has actually been solid over the last few weeks, jumping to 17th in the NFL in yards per play on offense.
The Lions defense, on the other hand, has not been great, falling to 16th in yards per play allowed. I think the Bears may be able to keep this division rivalry matchup closer than oddsmakers think.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers Spread Pick
- Pick: Chargers -3
I just can’t trust this Green Bay offense, which has scored 20 or fewer points in seven straight games.
The Packers are just 4-5 against the spread this season, and they may have a tough time handling a high-powered Chargers attack that has been let down by its defense all season. Can Jordan Love capitalize on that? I’m not sold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers Spread Pick
- Pick: Buccaneers +11.5
I don’t love either side here, even with the 49ers dominating in Week 10. However, we have seen teams (Cincy most recently) attack this San Francisco secondary, and the Bucs quietly have a strong passing offense this season.
I’ll plug my nose and take the points in San Fran.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Spread Pick
- Pick: Bills -7
This is a must-win game for the Bills, and while the New York defense wreaked havoc on them in Week 1, the team’s offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in consecutive weeks.
I can’t trust Zach Wilson to keep a game close when the other team can score more than 14 points. Buffalo can – and will – do that on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Spread Pick
- Pick: Seahawks -1
Matthew Stafford is expected to play for the Rams, but I’m still not sold on this team after it entered the bye on a three-game skid.
Seattle lost the season opener to Los Angeles, but it has been a much better team since, going 4-3-1 against the spread. I like the Seahawks to stay in the NFC West division hunt with a win this week.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos Spread Pick
- Pick: Vikings +2
Yes, Denver has won three straight games, but the team needed plenty of Bills turnovers and a costly penalty on the game-winning field goal try to win in Week 10.
Now, it has to take on a red hot Minnesota team that is eyeing a NFC North title. The Broncos are 1-3-1 ATS as favorites this season and 2-10-1 ATS as favorites in the Russell Wilson era.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Spread Pick
- Pick: Eagles +2.5
The Chiefs are my pick to win this game, but I think this matchup goes down to the wire.
While Andy Reid is 12-3 after a bye in his time with Kansas City, he’s just 7-8 against the spread in those games. I think the Eagles running game allows them to hang around on Monday night, even if they don’t end up winning.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.